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CA Governor Gavin Newsom Faces Previously Unexpected Uphill Battle in Recall Election

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Democratic analysts worry that apathy from voters who believe the recall is a longshot could drive Newsom to lose his seat.


Concerning Polls for Newsom Camp

The previously far-fetched effort to recall California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) appears to have gained momentum in recent weeks, posing a larger threat to the leader than previously anticipated just under a month before the Sept. 14 election.

Supporters of the Republican-led recall election, which was officially certified in July after organizers collected 1.7 million verified signatures, have cited a number of reasons for their desire to oust Newsom.

Among them are the state’s high taxes, the homelessness crisis, and the governor’s position on hot-button issues like immigration.

GOP groups tried to recall Newsom over such policies five times in the past, but their latest attempt garnered traction during the pandemic. The new movement is largely driven by Republican opposition to his handling of the crisis — specifically the shutdowns of schools and businesses and the state’s vaccine rollout.

Newsom, for his part, has painted the recall as a stunt lead by political extremists and supporters of former President Donald Trump.

One poll published Aug. 4 by Survey USA and the San Diego Union Tribune found that 51% of respondents were in favor of recalling Newsom, whereas only 40% wanted to keep him in power. While supporters made up a slim majority, the figures are highly notable because a poll conducted in May by the same organizations found that just 36% supported the recall and 47% opposed it.

More Obstacles

Further complicating matters for Newsom is the fact that polls have also consistently shown a big enthusiasm gap among Democrats, meaning Republicans are far more likely to drive turnout.

There are also a number of other hurdles Newsom faces. Like many other governors right now, Newsom is again dealing with the massive surge in COVID-19 cases driven by the Delta variant.

Not only has that hurt on-the-ground campaign efforts, but it has also means there is now increased scrutiny from both sides over how he handles the surges. Given that much of the recall already focused on Newsom’s handling of the pandemic last fall, new health orders could pose a serious threat to his chances of winning.

In addition to the pandemic, the governor is struggling with the fact that wildfire season in California has begun early and is already shaping up to be just as bad, if not worse, than last year.

The state is also in a historic drought, which has caused water shortages and prompted Newsom to impose emergency declarations in 50 of the state’s 58 counties last month.

Concerns About Ballot Confusion

Beyond Newsom’s problems, experts have expressed concern that the two questions posed on the recall ballot will confuse voters.

The first question — “shall the governor be recalled?” — will be answered by a vote of “yes” for those who wish him to be removed or a vote of “no” for those who do not. 

Political analysts say this could create a problem that is often seen with yes or no questions on ballots: voters who wish to oppose a policy or politician will intuitively vote “no” on their ballot, and vice-versa for those who wish to support and vote “yes.”

The second question will ask voters to select a candidate they would like to replace Newsom, and while that is more straightforward, the Democrat’s messaging on this is not.

Newsom’s camp has told people to leave the second question blank. Nathan Click, an advisor to Newsom, recently told supports that simply voting “no” on the first question “is the only way to block the Republican power grab and prevent a Republican takeover of California.”

That is not technically true. Out of the 46 candidates challenging Newsom, nine are Democrats, three are minor parties, and a 10 are “no party preference.” 

As a result, Democratic strategists worry that if Newsom is ousted, a new governor could be chosen by just a fraction of the electorate. While a majority is needed to recall the governor, only a plurality is needed to select a successor.

Leading Candidates

As far as who would replace Newsom, the field is very crowded, but most recent polls have shown conservative talk radio host Larry Elder leading the Republicans by fairly solid margins.

Meanwhile, YouTuber and real estate broker Kevin Paffrath leads among the Democrats challenging Newsom.

The polls, however, show large discrepancies regarding candidate selection.

One survey by UC Berkeley and the Los Angeles Times conducted at the end of the last month showed Paffrath polling behind four Republicans with just 3% of respondents saying he was their first choice.

By contrast, the August San Diego Union Tribune poll showed him leading even above Elder with 27% of those who said they supported ousting Newsom backing the YouTuber.

See what others are saying: (The Los Angeles Times) (CNBC) (CNN)

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Trump Mocks Florida Gov. “Ron DeSanctimonious” Ahead of Possible 2024 Bid

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The former president may announce a bid to take back the White House on Nov. 14, according to his inner circle.


Trump Concocts His Latest Nickname

From “Little Marco” and “Lyin’ Ted” to “Sleepy Joe” and “Crazy Bernie,” former president Donald Trump’s nicknames for his political opponents have been known for their punchy style, but Republicans found it hard to swallow his latest mouthful for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

“We’re winning big, big, big in the Republican Party for the nomination like nobody’s ever seen before,” he said Saturday at a rally in Pennsylvania. “Trump at 71, Ron DeSanctimonious at 10%.”

The former president drew rebuke from some allies and conservative commentators for driving a wedge through the GOP three days before the midterm elections.

“DeSantis is an extremely effective conservative governor who has had real policy wins and real cultural wins,” tweeted The Daily Wire’s Matt Walsh. “Trump isn’t going to be able to take this one down with a dumb nickname. He better have more than that up his sleeve.”

“What an idiot,” wrote Rod Dreher, a senior editor at The American Conservative. “DeSantis is a far more effective leader of the Right than Trump was, if, that is, you expect a leader to get a lot done, rather than just talking about it and owning the libs.”

In April 2021, Trump said he would “certainly” consider making DeSantis his running mate for a potential 2024 presidential bid. But as DeSantis established himself as a credible rival to Trump, their relationship grew colder.

Last September, sources told The Washington Post that Trump had called DeSantis “ungrateful” in conversations with advisors. The former president reportedly had not spoken with the governor in months.

The Party of Trump or DeSantis?

One day after his “DeSanctimonious” jab, Trump took to the stage in Florida to support Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R) reelection campaign but grabbed more attention when he seemed to endorse DeSantis for governor.

“The people of Florida are going to reelect the wonderful, the great friend of mine, Marco Rubio to the United States Senate, and you’re going to reelect Ron DeSantis as your governor of your state,” he said to the cheering crowd.

The brief moment of support was overshadowed, however, by the conspicuous absence of DeSantis himself.

Both men held competing, contemporaneous rallies in the same state hundreds of miles apart, and multiple sources told Politico that DeSantis was not invited to Trump’s event, nor did he ask to attend.

The governor has repeatedly refused to say whether he will make a run for the presidency in 2024, but national polling consistently puts Trump ahead of him among Republicans by a wide margin.

Some recent polls, however, have shown DeSantis to lead the former president in specific states like Florida and New Hampshire.

A survey last month found that 72% of GOP voters believe DeSantis should have a great or good deal of influence in the future direction of the party, while just 64% said the same about Trump.

Sources told Axios that Trump’s inner circle is discussing a Nov. 14 announcement for his presidential campaign, timing it to capitalize on the expected post-midterm euphoria as vote counts roll in.

See what others are saying: (The New York Times) (Fox News) (Politico)

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The Midterms Are Tomorrow, But We May Not Have Results for a While. Here’s What You Need to Know

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The counting of mail-in ballots and possible legal challenges will almost certainly slow the final results.


Election Delays Expected

As Americans gear up for Election Day on Nov. 8, experts are warning that many races, including some of the most highly anticipated ones, may not have the final results in for days or even weeks.

These delays are completely normal and do not indicate that election fraud or issues with vote counting took place. However, like in 2020, former President Donald Trump and other election-denying Republicans could seize on the slow-coming returns to promote false claims to that effect.

There are a number of very legitimate reasons why it could take some time before the final results are solidified.  Each state has different rules for carrying out the election process, like when polls close and when ballots can start being counted.

There are also varying rules for when mail-in ballots can be received and counted that can extend when those votes will be tallied. That lag could seriously skew early results in many places because there has been a major rise in the number of people voting by mail.

Red Mirage, Blue Mirage

One very important thing to note is that the early returns seen on election night may not be representative of the final outcomes. 

In 2020, there was a lot of talk about a “red mirage,” which is when ballots cast on election day and favoring Republicans are reported first while mail-in ballots used more by Democrats are counted later, creating the appearance that Republicans have a much wider lead.

That phenomenon may very well take place in several key battlegrounds that not only could decide the House and the Senate but also have incredibly consequential state-wide elections of their own.

For example, in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, election officials cannot start counting mail-in and absentee ballots until Election Day. 

Some experts have also speculated that a similar occurrence could occur in Georiga because the suburbs — which have shifted blue in recent years — report their results later than rural counties.

At the same time, there are also some states where the opposite might happen: a blue mirage that makes it seem like Democrats are doing better than they actually are.

Such a scenario is possible in Arizona, where election officials can process mail-in ballots as soon as they receive them, and where a similar trend played out in 2020.

Other Possible Slow-Downs

Beyond all that, there are a number of other factors that could delay when results are finalized.

For example, in Georgia, candidates need to get at least 50% of the vote to win, and if none do, then the top two are sent to a run-off election on Dec. 6. That is a very real possibility for the state’s closely-watched Senate race because there is a libertarian on the ballot who could siphon enough votes from Republican Herschel Walker and Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock to keep them both below the 50% threshold. 

In other words: if control of the Senate comes down to Georgia again — as it did in 2020 and which is a very real possibility — voters may not know the outcome until a month after the election.

Meanwhile, experts also say that legal battles over mail-in ballots could further delay results, or even go to the Supreme Court. According to The New York Times, before Election Day, over 100 lawsuits had already been filed.

In Pennsylvania, for example, the State Supreme Court ruled last week in favor of a lawsuit from Republican groups requesting that mail-in ballots that did not have dates on outer envelopes be invalidated, causing thousands of ballots to be set aside. Multiple rights groups are now suing to get that decision reversed. 

See what others are saying: (NPR) (ABC News) (Reuters)

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DHS Confirms Paul Pelosi Attacker is a Canadian National in the U.S. Illegally

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The suspect espoused many political conspiracy theories promoted by the American far-right and told investigators he wished to harm House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to send a message to other U.S. politicians.


Pelosi Attacker’s Immigration Issues

The man accused of attacking Paul Pelosi and trying to kidnap House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Ca.) is a Canadian national currently residing in the United States illegally, according to a statement from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) late Wednesday.

Law enforcement officials say the suspect embraced far-right conspiracies about U.S. politicians and told investigators he wanted to break the House Speaker’s kneecaps as a lesson to other members of Congress. 

Despite his lack of citizenship, the man also allegedly told police he was on a “suicide mission” and had a list of state and federal lawmakers he wanted to target.

In its statement to the media, DHS said that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) had lodged a “detainer” on the suspect, which is a notice the agency intends to take custody of an individual who could be deported and requests it be notified before that person is released. The detainer, however, likely will not impact the case against him, because deportations are civil proceedings that happen after criminal cases are resolved.

According to several reports, federal records indicate the suspect came to the U.S. legally via Mexico in March 2008. Canadians who travel to America for business or pleasure are usually able to stay in the country for six months without a visa. DHS told The Washington Post the Canadian citizen was admitted as a “temporary visitor” traveling for pleasure.

Before the confirmation from DHS, there was some mixed reporting on how long the suspected attacker has been in America. On Monday, an anonymous U.S. official told the Associated Press the man had legally entered in 2000 but stayed way after his visa expired.

One day later, The New York Times reported he was registered to vote in San Francisco County from 2002 to 2009, and even voted once in 2002. 

Heightened Security Concerns

The new revelation comes as lawmakers are facing increased threats, prompting conversations about safety and security with a specific focus on the role of the U.S. Capitol Police (USCP).

On Tuesday, multiple outlets reported that USCP security cameras trained on the Pelosi’s house actually captured the attack, but no one was watching. In a statement Wednesday, the agency said its command center has access to around 1,800 cameras and not all are watched constantly.

The Capitol Police also said that the Pelosi’s home is “actively” monitored “around the clock” when the Speaker is there, but not when she is in Washington.

As a result, many argued that there should be more security and surveillance for the second person in line for the presidency — especially given the threat of violence after the Jan. 6 insurrection and warnings from law enforcement ahead of the midterms.

That was echoed in a scathing letter yesterday sent to Capitol Police by Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Ca.), who is one of the most senior Democrats in Congress and heads the Administration Committee.

In her letter, Lofgren noted that the agency “has previously reported to the committee that the speaker receives the most threats of any member of Congress,” and asked why that protection was not extended “to the spouses and/or other family members of the congressional leaders in the presidential line of succession.”

She questioned why the USCP had turned down an offer from the FBI for some of its officers to be part of terrorism task forces investigating threats against Congressmembers and why it had not made a formal agreement with San Francisco police for a car to be posted at the Pelosi’s home 24-hours a day as had been done in the months after Jan. 6.

Lofgren also inquired why the Capitol Police did not direct more threats against lawmakers for prosecution. She noted that members of Congress received at least 9,625 threats in 2021, but just 217 were referred.

Editor’s Note: At Rogue Rocket, we make it a point to not include the names and pictures of mass murders, suspected mass murderers, or those accused of committing violent crimes who may have been seeking attention or infamy. Therefore, we will not be linking to other sources, as they may contain these details.

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