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CA Governor Gavin Newsom Faces Previously Unexpected Uphill Battle in Recall Election

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Democratic analysts worry that apathy from voters who believe the recall is a longshot could drive Newsom to lose his seat.


Concerning Polls for Newsom Camp

The previously far-fetched effort to recall California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) appears to have gained momentum in recent weeks, posing a larger threat to the leader than previously anticipated just under a month before the Sept. 14 election.

Supporters of the Republican-led recall election, which was officially certified in July after organizers collected 1.7 million verified signatures, have cited a number of reasons for their desire to oust Newsom.

Among them are the state’s high taxes, the homelessness crisis, and the governor’s position on hot-button issues like immigration.

GOP groups tried to recall Newsom over such policies five times in the past, but their latest attempt garnered traction during the pandemic. The new movement is largely driven by Republican opposition to his handling of the crisis — specifically the shutdowns of schools and businesses and the state’s vaccine rollout.

Newsom, for his part, has painted the recall as a stunt lead by political extremists and supporters of former President Donald Trump.

One poll published Aug. 4 by Survey USA and the San Diego Union Tribune found that 51% of respondents were in favor of recalling Newsom, whereas only 40% wanted to keep him in power. While supporters made up a slim majority, the figures are highly notable because a poll conducted in May by the same organizations found that just 36% supported the recall and 47% opposed it.

More Obstacles

Further complicating matters for Newsom is the fact that polls have also consistently shown a big enthusiasm gap among Democrats, meaning Republicans are far more likely to drive turnout.

There are also a number of other hurdles Newsom faces. Like many other governors right now, Newsom is again dealing with the massive surge in COVID-19 cases driven by the Delta variant.

Not only has that hurt on-the-ground campaign efforts, but it has also means there is now increased scrutiny from both sides over how he handles the surges. Given that much of the recall already focused on Newsom’s handling of the pandemic last fall, new health orders could pose a serious threat to his chances of winning.

In addition to the pandemic, the governor is struggling with the fact that wildfire season in California has begun early and is already shaping up to be just as bad, if not worse, than last year.

The state is also in a historic drought, which has caused water shortages and prompted Newsom to impose emergency declarations in 50 of the state’s 58 counties last month.

Concerns About Ballot Confusion

Beyond Newsom’s problems, experts have expressed concern that the two questions posed on the recall ballot will confuse voters.

The first question — “shall the governor be recalled?” — will be answered by a vote of “yes” for those who wish him to be removed or a vote of “no” for those who do not. 

Political analysts say this could create a problem that is often seen with yes or no questions on ballots: voters who wish to oppose a policy or politician will intuitively vote “no” on their ballot, and vice-versa for those who wish to support and vote “yes.”

The second question will ask voters to select a candidate they would like to replace Newsom, and while that is more straightforward, the Democrat’s messaging on this is not.

Newsom’s camp has told people to leave the second question blank. Nathan Click, an advisor to Newsom, recently told supports that simply voting “no” on the first question “is the only way to block the Republican power grab and prevent a Republican takeover of California.”

That is not technically true. Out of the 46 candidates challenging Newsom, nine are Democrats, three are minor parties, and a 10 are “no party preference.” 

As a result, Democratic strategists worry that if Newsom is ousted, a new governor could be chosen by just a fraction of the electorate. While a majority is needed to recall the governor, only a plurality is needed to select a successor.

Leading Candidates

As far as who would replace Newsom, the field is very crowded, but most recent polls have shown conservative talk radio host Larry Elder leading the Republicans by fairly solid margins.

Meanwhile, YouTuber and real estate broker Kevin Paffrath leads among the Democrats challenging Newsom.

The polls, however, show large discrepancies regarding candidate selection.

One survey by UC Berkeley and the Los Angeles Times conducted at the end of the last month showed Paffrath polling behind four Republicans with just 3% of respondents saying he was their first choice.

By contrast, the August San Diego Union Tribune poll showed him leading even above Elder with 27% of those who said they supported ousting Newsom backing the YouTuber.

See what others are saying: (The Los Angeles Times) (CNBC) (CNN)

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California Gov. Gavin Newsom Survives Recall

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Experts say the outcome should act as a warning for Republicans who tie themselves to former President Donald Trump and attempt to undermine election results by promoting false voter fraud claims.


Recall Effort Fails

After seven months and an estimated $276 million in taxpayer money, the Republican-led effort to recall California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) failed Tuesday.

Just under 70% of the votes have been reported as of Wednesday morning, showing that “no” on the recall received 63.9% of the vote. That’s nearly twice as many votes as “yes,” which had 36.1%.

According to The Washington Post, even if the margin narrows as more votes are counted, this still marks one of the biggest rejections of any recall effort in America over the last century.

Analysts say the historic rebuke was driven by high Democratic turnout and broader fears over resurging COVID cases.

While the Delta variant continues to push new infections to record highs in many parts of the country with lax mask rules and low vaccination rates, California, once a global epicenter of the pandemic, now has one of the highest vaccination rates and lowest new caseloads in the nation.

Newsom has continually tried to convince voters that those figures are the results of his vaccine and masking policies, which have been some of the most aggressive in the U.S. 

Given that polls showed the pandemic was the top concern for California voters, it is clear that the majority favored his policies over those of his competitors. Larry Elder, the Republican talk radio host of led the field of 46 challengers, ran on a platform of getting rid of essentially all COVID restrictions.

Newsom’s Remarks

In his victory speech Tuesday night, Newsom painted the recall’s failure not only as a win for Democratic coronavirus policies but also for Democracy at large.

“We said yes to science. We said yes to vaccines. We said yes to ending this pandemic,” he said. “We said yes to people’s right to vote without fear of fake fraud or voter suppression.” 

“I think about just in the last few days and the former president put out saying this election was rigged,” he continued. “Democracy is not a football. You don’t throw it around. That’s more like a, I don’t know, antique vase. You can drop it and smashing a million different pieces. And that’s what we’re capable of doing if we don’t stand up to meet the moment and push back.”

“I said this many, many times on the campaign trail, we may have defeated Trump, but Trump-ism is not dead in this country. The Big Lie, January 6th insurrection, all the voting suppression efforts that are happening all across this country.” 

A Warning for Republicans

Newsom’s remarks took aim at the efforts by Elder and other Republicans — including former President Donald Trump — who over the last week have claimed falsely and without evidence that voter fraud helped secured the governor’s win before Election Day even took place.

While it is currently unknown whether that narrative may have prompted more Republican voters to stay home, Newsom’s effort to cast Edler as a Trump-like candidate and the recall as an undemocratic, Republican power grab appears to have been effective.

Now, political strategists say that the outcome of the recall should serve as a warning that Republicans who pin themselves to Trump and his Big Lie playbook may be hurt more in certain states.

“The recall does offer at least one lesson to Democrats in Washington ahead of next year’s midterm elections: The party’s pre-existing blue- and purple-state strategy of portraying Republicans as Trump-loving extremists can still prove effective with the former president out of office,” The New York Times explained.

Even outside of a strongly blue state like California, analysts say this strategy will also be effective with similar candidates in battleground states like Georgia, Arizona, Missouri, and Pennsylvania, which will be essential to deciding control of the Senate.

See what others are saying: (The Washington Post) (The New York Times) (NPR)

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Justice Department Sues Texas Over Abortion Ban

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The department claims the Texas law violates past Supreme Court precedents on abortion and infringes on Constitutional protections.


Biden Administration Takes Aim at Texas Law

The Department of Justice sued Texas on Thursday in an attempt to block the state’s newly enacted law that effectively prohibits all abortions by banning the procedure after six weeks, before most people know they are pregnant.

The abortion law, which is the most restrictive in the country and does not provide exceptions for rape or incest, allows private citizens to take legal action against anyone who helps a person terminate their pregnancy after six weeks.

In its lawsuit, the Justice Department argued that the Texas law is unconstitutional because it violates past Supreme Court precedents through a technical loophole.

While numerous other states have passed similar laws banning abortion after about six weeks, federal judges have struck down those measures on the grounds that they are inconsistent with Roe v. Wade and subsequent Supreme Court decisions that states cannot prevent someone from seeking an abortion before a fetus can viably live outside the womb, usually around 22 to 24 weeks.

The Texas law, however, skirts the high court decisions by deputizing citizens to enforce the law rather than state government officials, taking the state out of the equation entirely and protecting it from legal responsibility.

Individuals who do so do not have to prove any personal injury or connection to those they take legal action against, which can range from abortion providers to rideshare drivers who take someone to a clinic.

If their lawsuit is successful, the citizen is entitled to a $10,000 award.

DOJ Lawsuit Targets Constitutionality

During a press conference detailing the DOJ lawsuit, Attorney General Merrick Garland referred to the enforcement mechanism as “an unprecedented” effort with the “obvious and expressly acknowledged intention” to prevent Texans from their constitutionally protected right to have an abortion.

“This kind of scheme to nullify the Constitution of the United States is one that all Americans — whatever their politics or party — should fear,” Garland said, adding that the provision of the law allowing civilians “to serve as bounty hunters” may become “a model for action in other areas, by other states, and with respect to other constitutional rights and judicial precedents.”

The Justice Department argued that the Texas policy violates equal protection guarantees under the 14th Amendment as well as the Constitution’s Supremacy Clause, which establishes that the Constitution and federal law generally take precedence over state law.

The lawsuit also claimed that the law interferes with the constitutional obligation of federal employees to provide access to abortion, including in cases of rape or incest, to people who are under the care of federal agencies or contractors such as those in prisons.

Both Sides See Path to Supreme Court

While proponents of abortion rights applauded the Justice Department’s legal challenge, officials in Texas defended the law and accused the Biden administration of filing the lawsuit for political reasons. 

“President Biden and his administration are more interested in changing the national narrative from their disastrous Afghanistan evacuation and reckless open border policies instead of protecting the innocent unborn,” a spokeswoman for Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R), said in a statement. 

“We are confident that the courts will uphold and protect that right to life.”

The DOJ’s suit will now be decided by a federal judge for the Western District of Texas, based in Austin. 

Depending on how that court rules, either opponents or supporters of the abortion ban are expected to appeal the case, sending it to the conservative Fifth Circuit Court of Appeal and likely ultimately placing the matter before the Supreme Court again in a matter of months.

The Supreme Court allowed the law to go into effect by declining to approve an emergency petition to block the measure last week, but it did not rule on the constitutionality of the policy.

As a result, the Justice Department’s legal challenge could force the high court to hear another facet of the law that it has not yet considered if it decides to see the case.

See what others are saying: (The Washington Post) (The New York Times) (The Texas Tribune)

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Texas Governor Says Rape Victims Aren’t Forced To Give Birth Because They Have 6 Weeks To Get an Abortion

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The governor also defended the six-week abortion ban’s lack of exceptions for rape and incest by saying the state will “eliminate all rapists.”


Abbott Defends Texas Abortion Law

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) on Tuesday defended the state’s new controversial law that bans abortion after six weeks, before many know they are pregnant, after facing criticism that the policy does not provide exceptions for rape and incest.

During a press conference, Abbott refuted a reporter’s assertion that the law forced victims of rape and incest to carry their pregnancies to term, claiming that it “provides at least six weeks for a person to be able to get an abortion.”

“Let’s make something very clear: Rape is a crime,” the governor continued. 

“And Texas will work tirelessly to make sure that we eliminate all rapists from the streets of Texas by aggressively going out and arresting them and prosecuting them and getting them off the streets.” 

Backlash Over Remarks on Abortions at Six Week 

Abbott’s claim that rape victims would still have plenty of time to get an abortion was widely criticized by many, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), who called his remarks “disgusting” in a now-viral interview on CNN

“I don’t know if he is familiar with a menstruating person’s body. In fact, I do know that he’s not familiar with a female or menstruating person’s body because if he did, he would know that you don’t have six weeks,” she said. 

“But in case no one has informed him before in his life, six weeks pregnant means two weeks late for your period,” Ocasio-Cortez continued. “Two weeks late for your period for any person, any person with a menstrual cycle, can happen if you’re stressed, if your diet changes, or for really no reason at all.” 

Those comments were echoed by a lot of other people who pointed to data from Planned Parenthood that said 85-90% of people who obtain abortions in Texas are at least six weeks into their pregnancy.

Critics Note Flaws in Abbott’s Claims About Rapists

Many also took aim at Abbott’s claim that he was going to “eliminate all rapists” by mocking the governor.

“Wait. Governor Abbott had a solution to end all RAPE and he sat on it until now?” Texas State Representative Gene Wu (D) tweeted. 

Others argued that historical evidence proves Abbott’s promise was ignorant.

According to data from the Justice Department analyzed by the Rape, Abuse & Incest National Network (RAINN), only 1 out of every 3 rapes and sexual assaults are reported. 

Source: Rape, Abuse & Incest National Network

Out of every 1,000 assaults, only 50 lead to arrest, and only 25 lead to incarceration, meaning that more than 97% of people who commit assault walk free.

Some critics also said that Abbott’s goal of getting rid of “all rapists” relied on a faulty conception of who actually perpetrates sexual crimes.

“The majority of people who are raped and who are sexually assaulted are assaulted by someone who they know,” Ocasio-Cortez told CNN. “And these aren’t just predators that are walking around the streets at night. They are people’s uncles, they are teachers, they are family friends.”

“And when something like that happens, it takes a very long time, first of all, for any victim to come forward,” she added. “And second of all, when a victim comes forward they don’t necessarily want to bring their case into the carceral system.” 

See what others are saying: (The Washington Post) (NPR) (Business Insider)

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