Connect with us

Politics

Election Day Is Tomorrow. Here’s What You Need To Know

Published

on

  • Election Day is tomorrow, but it is highly unlikely that we will know the results that same day.
  • Here’s what you need to know about what we can expect to see tomorrow and in the days and weeks that follow.

Don’t Bank on a Winner

Election Day is finally near and while the results are still up in the air, there are some things that we should expect going into Tuesday.

First and foremost, the election will not end tomorrow. Do not expect a clear winner on election night. More people than ever before are voting by mail this year, and those mail-in ballots take longer for election officials to count than ballots cast at polling places.

The delay from counting absentee ballots combined with the fact that each state has different rules for how votes are counted and reported means that votes will be reported unevenly. Some states may report totals very early, perhaps even on election night. Others will take days to tally up all their results, including some of the key swing states that will ultimately decide the election.

This means that even if the election looks like it’s headed in a certain direction tomorrow, there is really no way to know who has won until those swing states are fully counted. 

That point is extremely important to note because it is very likely that the election may look like it is headed towards Republicans and President Donald Trump early on. This is what’s known as a red mirage. Numerous models show that Republicans are more likely to vote in person and Democrats are more likely to vote by mail. As a result, early tallies might show a GOP-heavy lead on Election day, but the final result could shift when absentee votes are counted.

For example, in Pennsylvania, which is arguably one of the most important swing states, election officials have said that ballots will likely not fully be counted until Friday. In that time, the results will almost certainly shift significantly.

In fact, according to calculations by FiveThirtyEight, we could see a situation where Trump is ahead by upwards of 16 points on election night in the state, only for him to eventually lose thes state by five points or more once all ballots are counted— a potential 21-plus point swing.

What Trump Might Do

To that point, something else we could very possibly see is President Trump capitalizing on this red mirage to sow discord, create uncertainty, and undermine the validity of millions of ballots that arrived on or even before Election Day but simply take longer to count.

Trump advisers who have spoken to the media have even allegedly outright said this is part of his strategy. 

Over the weekend, The New York Times reported that Trump advisers told the outlet “their best hope was if the president wins Ohio and Florida is too close to call early in the night, depriving Mr. Biden a swift victory and giving Mr. Trump the room to undermine the validity of uncounted mail-in ballots in the days after.”

On Sunday, Axios appeared to back that up, reporting that three sources familiar with the president’s private comments said Trump “has told confidants he’ll declare victory on Tuesday night if it looks like he’s ‘ahead’ […] even if the Electoral College outcome still hinges on large numbers of uncounted votes in key states like Pennsylvania.”

Trump denied that he would prematurely declare victory while speaking to reporters later in the day, but he also added, “We’re going to go in the night of, as soon as that election’s over, we’re going in with our lawyers.”

However, it is unclear exactly what Trump’s lawyers would do. As Slate points out, while there have been many disputes over ballots that arrive after Election Day, “there has never been any basis to claim that a ballot arriving on time cannot be counted if officials cannot finish their count on election night.”

Here’s the thing: no single state fully counts their ballots on election night. Some places will not even start counting until polls close.

That is what normally happens during the general election, even without a historic amount of ballots being sent by mail, which is why these efforts by Trump and his campaign to undermine the very counting of ballots is so unprecedented.

As Slate notes: “Counting legitimate ballots is not stealing or flipping the election, and no amount of spin can make it otherwise.”

Disinformation Campaigns

Trump, however, will likely not be the only one trying to capitalize on and spin these delays in final results. Weeks ago, the FBI warned that foriegn actors and cybercriminals will use the delays to spread disinformation about the election.

To prepare, numerous media outlets and social media platforms have emphasized their efforts to crack down on misinformation. Last month, Reuters reported that executives of major TV networks will emphasize credibility and thorough vetting of results over speed.

On Monday morning, Twitter also laid out its new policies for sharing election results, with the platform also specifically naming seven outlets it will use as credible sources to call the election.

Those outlets being ABC News, AP, CNN, CBS News, Decision Desk HQ, Fox News, and NBC News.

Any tweet posted about election results that does not cite those sources risks being labeled as misinformation, the company said.

With that in mind, remember that there are many people who would benefit in many different ways from the spread of false information. In the coming days and weeks, it is absolutely essential that you pay attention to authoritative sources, fact check any claims you see, and think carefully before sharing anything on social media.

Prepare for the Possibility of a Long Wait

As noted earlier, the election will not end tomorrow, and even once a majority of ballots are tallied, it is highly possible the election will not be decided for weeks due to court challenges.

Trump himself has said he will fight voting rules and results all the way to the Supreme Court, and according to The Times, Trump’s campaign is raising money to continue these ballot fights well into mid-December, citing the belief that “multiple states” could “require recounts.” 

Experts say we can indeed expect to see many court cases, which will in turn further delay key results and possibly even the declaration of a winner. While we don’t know what will come of those legal challenges, we do know that we need to buckle down and prepare for a lot of unknowns and turmoil from now until the inauguration.

As Axios writes in its guide to safely and sanely navigating the election, “Even if you get the result you want, anticipate months of wild maneuvering and protests […] The nation is headed into a firestorm. There’s no way it’s orderly or normal, or even necessarily over when it seems over. All we can do is be smart about what’s to come, and wise in our responses.”

See what others are saying: (Slate) (Axios) (The New York Times)

Politics

Trump Mocks Florida Gov. “Ron DeSanctimonious” Ahead of Possible 2024 Bid

Published

on

The former president may announce a bid to take back the White House on Nov. 14, according to his inner circle.


Trump Concocts His Latest Nickname

From “Little Marco” and “Lyin’ Ted” to “Sleepy Joe” and “Crazy Bernie,” former president Donald Trump’s nicknames for his political opponents have been known for their punchy style, but Republicans found it hard to swallow his latest mouthful for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

“We’re winning big, big, big in the Republican Party for the nomination like nobody’s ever seen before,” he said Saturday at a rally in Pennsylvania. “Trump at 71, Ron DeSanctimonious at 10%.”

The former president drew rebuke from some allies and conservative commentators for driving a wedge through the GOP three days before the midterm elections.

“DeSantis is an extremely effective conservative governor who has had real policy wins and real cultural wins,” tweeted The Daily Wire’s Matt Walsh. “Trump isn’t going to be able to take this one down with a dumb nickname. He better have more than that up his sleeve.”

“What an idiot,” wrote Rod Dreher, a senior editor at The American Conservative. “DeSantis is a far more effective leader of the Right than Trump was, if, that is, you expect a leader to get a lot done, rather than just talking about it and owning the libs.”

In April 2021, Trump said he would “certainly” consider making DeSantis his running mate for a potential 2024 presidential bid. But as DeSantis established himself as a credible rival to Trump, their relationship grew colder.

Last September, sources told The Washington Post that Trump had called DeSantis “ungrateful” in conversations with advisors. The former president reportedly had not spoken with the governor in months.

The Party of Trump or DeSantis?

One day after his “DeSanctimonious” jab, Trump took to the stage in Florida to support Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R) reelection campaign but grabbed more attention when he seemed to endorse DeSantis for governor.

“The people of Florida are going to reelect the wonderful, the great friend of mine, Marco Rubio to the United States Senate, and you’re going to reelect Ron DeSantis as your governor of your state,” he said to the cheering crowd.

The brief moment of support was overshadowed, however, by the conspicuous absence of DeSantis himself.

Both men held competing, contemporaneous rallies in the same state hundreds of miles apart, and multiple sources told Politico that DeSantis was not invited to Trump’s event, nor did he ask to attend.

The governor has repeatedly refused to say whether he will make a run for the presidency in 2024, but national polling consistently puts Trump ahead of him among Republicans by a wide margin.

Some recent polls, however, have shown DeSantis to lead the former president in specific states like Florida and New Hampshire.

A survey last month found that 72% of GOP voters believe DeSantis should have a great or good deal of influence in the future direction of the party, while just 64% said the same about Trump.

Sources told Axios that Trump’s inner circle is discussing a Nov. 14 announcement for his presidential campaign, timing it to capitalize on the expected post-midterm euphoria as vote counts roll in.

See what others are saying: (The New York Times) (Fox News) (Politico)

Continue Reading

Politics

The Midterms Are Tomorrow, But We May Not Have Results for a While. Here’s What You Need to Know

Published

on

The counting of mail-in ballots and possible legal challenges will almost certainly slow the final results.


Election Delays Expected

As Americans gear up for Election Day on Nov. 8, experts are warning that many races, including some of the most highly anticipated ones, may not have the final results in for days or even weeks.

These delays are completely normal and do not indicate that election fraud or issues with vote counting took place. However, like in 2020, former President Donald Trump and other election-denying Republicans could seize on the slow-coming returns to promote false claims to that effect.

There are a number of very legitimate reasons why it could take some time before the final results are solidified.  Each state has different rules for carrying out the election process, like when polls close and when ballots can start being counted.

There are also varying rules for when mail-in ballots can be received and counted that can extend when those votes will be tallied. That lag could seriously skew early results in many places because there has been a major rise in the number of people voting by mail.

Red Mirage, Blue Mirage

One very important thing to note is that the early returns seen on election night may not be representative of the final outcomes. 

In 2020, there was a lot of talk about a “red mirage,” which is when ballots cast on election day and favoring Republicans are reported first while mail-in ballots used more by Democrats are counted later, creating the appearance that Republicans have a much wider lead.

That phenomenon may very well take place in several key battlegrounds that not only could decide the House and the Senate but also have incredibly consequential state-wide elections of their own.

For example, in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, election officials cannot start counting mail-in and absentee ballots until Election Day. 

Some experts have also speculated that a similar occurrence could occur in Georiga because the suburbs — which have shifted blue in recent years — report their results later than rural counties.

At the same time, there are also some states where the opposite might happen: a blue mirage that makes it seem like Democrats are doing better than they actually are.

Such a scenario is possible in Arizona, where election officials can process mail-in ballots as soon as they receive them, and where a similar trend played out in 2020.

Other Possible Slow-Downs

Beyond all that, there are a number of other factors that could delay when results are finalized.

For example, in Georgia, candidates need to get at least 50% of the vote to win, and if none do, then the top two are sent to a run-off election on Dec. 6. That is a very real possibility for the state’s closely-watched Senate race because there is a libertarian on the ballot who could siphon enough votes from Republican Herschel Walker and Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock to keep them both below the 50% threshold. 

In other words: if control of the Senate comes down to Georgia again — as it did in 2020 and which is a very real possibility — voters may not know the outcome until a month after the election.

Meanwhile, experts also say that legal battles over mail-in ballots could further delay results, or even go to the Supreme Court. According to The New York Times, before Election Day, over 100 lawsuits had already been filed.

In Pennsylvania, for example, the State Supreme Court ruled last week in favor of a lawsuit from Republican groups requesting that mail-in ballots that did not have dates on outer envelopes be invalidated, causing thousands of ballots to be set aside. Multiple rights groups are now suing to get that decision reversed. 

See what others are saying: (NPR) (ABC News) (Reuters)

Continue Reading

Politics

DHS Confirms Paul Pelosi Attacker is a Canadian National in the U.S. Illegally

Published

on

The suspect espoused many political conspiracy theories promoted by the American far-right and told investigators he wished to harm House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to send a message to other U.S. politicians.


Pelosi Attacker’s Immigration Issues

The man accused of attacking Paul Pelosi and trying to kidnap House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Ca.) is a Canadian national currently residing in the United States illegally, according to a statement from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) late Wednesday.

Law enforcement officials say the suspect embraced far-right conspiracies about U.S. politicians and told investigators he wanted to break the House Speaker’s kneecaps as a lesson to other members of Congress. 

Despite his lack of citizenship, the man also allegedly told police he was on a “suicide mission” and had a list of state and federal lawmakers he wanted to target.

In its statement to the media, DHS said that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) had lodged a “detainer” on the suspect, which is a notice the agency intends to take custody of an individual who could be deported and requests it be notified before that person is released. The detainer, however, likely will not impact the case against him, because deportations are civil proceedings that happen after criminal cases are resolved.

According to several reports, federal records indicate the suspect came to the U.S. legally via Mexico in March 2008. Canadians who travel to America for business or pleasure are usually able to stay in the country for six months without a visa. DHS told The Washington Post the Canadian citizen was admitted as a “temporary visitor” traveling for pleasure.

Before the confirmation from DHS, there was some mixed reporting on how long the suspected attacker has been in America. On Monday, an anonymous U.S. official told the Associated Press the man had legally entered in 2000 but stayed way after his visa expired.

One day later, The New York Times reported he was registered to vote in San Francisco County from 2002 to 2009, and even voted once in 2002. 

Heightened Security Concerns

The new revelation comes as lawmakers are facing increased threats, prompting conversations about safety and security with a specific focus on the role of the U.S. Capitol Police (USCP).

On Tuesday, multiple outlets reported that USCP security cameras trained on the Pelosi’s house actually captured the attack, but no one was watching. In a statement Wednesday, the agency said its command center has access to around 1,800 cameras and not all are watched constantly.

The Capitol Police also said that the Pelosi’s home is “actively” monitored “around the clock” when the Speaker is there, but not when she is in Washington.

As a result, many argued that there should be more security and surveillance for the second person in line for the presidency — especially given the threat of violence after the Jan. 6 insurrection and warnings from law enforcement ahead of the midterms.

That was echoed in a scathing letter yesterday sent to Capitol Police by Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Ca.), who is one of the most senior Democrats in Congress and heads the Administration Committee.

In her letter, Lofgren noted that the agency “has previously reported to the committee that the speaker receives the most threats of any member of Congress,” and asked why that protection was not extended “to the spouses and/or other family members of the congressional leaders in the presidential line of succession.”

She questioned why the USCP had turned down an offer from the FBI for some of its officers to be part of terrorism task forces investigating threats against Congressmembers and why it had not made a formal agreement with San Francisco police for a car to be posted at the Pelosi’s home 24-hours a day as had been done in the months after Jan. 6.

Lofgren also inquired why the Capitol Police did not direct more threats against lawmakers for prosecution. She noted that members of Congress received at least 9,625 threats in 2021, but just 217 were referred.

Editor’s Note: At Rogue Rocket, we make it a point to not include the names and pictures of mass murders, suspected mass murderers, or those accused of committing violent crimes who may have been seeking attention or infamy. Therefore, we will not be linking to other sources, as they may contain these details.

Continue Reading