- At least 1.4 million people filed for unemployment last week, marking the first time claims have increased since March. The move comes as the extra $600 in unemployment benefits are set to expire next week.
- On Wednesday, Senate Republicans announced they had agreed to a tentative $1 trillion coronavirus stimulus deal with the White House, which, among other things, included an expansion of loans to small businesses, funding for COVID testing and vaccines, aid to schools, and more.
- The bill was supposed to be rolled out Thursday morning, but again got held up by the ongoing negotiations that have been stalled for weeks because of divisions within the Republican party.
Unemployment Numbers Spike
The government reported Thursday that 1.4 million people filed for unemployment last week, marking the first time unemployment claims have increased since March.
Separately, another 980,000 new claims were filed by freelancers, part-time workers, and others who do not qualify for state unemployment benefits but can receive aid under the emergency federal program.
Notably, the government did report that the number of continuing claims— claims filed by people who are already receiving unemployment and filed again— did drop from 17.4 million for the week ending July 4 to 16.1 million for the week ending July 11.
However, that data is reported on a week lag, and thus does not account for any of the closures or restrictions that have been put in place over the last two weeks. It also does not represent the fact that the U.S. has now reported more coronavirus cases in the last two weeks alone than in all of June.
While this week’s numbers are still much lower than the numbers reported in March before they started steadily declining, the fact that this is the first uptick since then is significant because it shows a broader trend.
“What you’re seeing is that, as the economy slows, the pace of claims picks back up — which really puts at risk the monthly jobs report over the next few months,” Joseph Brusuelas the chief economist at RSM, a multi-national network of accounting firms told the Washington Post. “The July numbers are going to be tenuous, but it’s August that I’m worried about.”
The timing of the spike is also highly relevant because it comes as the additional $600 in federal unemployment benefits are set to expire in just over a week.
In addition to the 20 to 30 million people who will lose those benefits if and when they expire, many economists have also warned that it would have a very serious effect on the already faltering economy.
“There is one clear takeaway from this morning’s unemployment insurance report –not extending the weekly $600 benefit supplement would be unconscionable,” Andrew Stettner, a senior fellow at The Century Foundation told USA Today. “Families will be evicted from their homes, poverty will soar, children will go hungry, businesses will shutter and the economy will tank.”
Meanwhile, Back in Congress
As that deadline looms, Senate Republicans and the White House are still in the middle of hashing out the details of another coronavirus stimulus package.
For weeks now, that process has been stalled by internal divisions within the Republican Party. While some of the Republicans are divided on specific issues, including unemployment, others simply do not want another stimulus bill at all.
With those negotiations getting down to the wire, Senate GOP leaders announced Wednesday that they had reached a tentative $1 trillion deal with White House officials. According to a draft summary, which was obtained by The New York Times, there are several areas the Republicans have agreed.
Among other things, the summary included $26 billion for vaccine development and deployment, $25 billion for coronavirus testing, a total of $105 billion for education— $30 billion of which would be set aside for schools that reopen, and a second round of loans to small businesses with more loan forgiveness.
Notably, the document did say that there would be another round of stimulus checks, but it did not say how much they would be or who they would go to.
Also of note is what was not in the summary. The plan explicitly states Republicans will not give any money to state and local governments to help with budget holes and layoffs, though it does note that aid will likely be added back in during negotiations with the Democrats, who want hundreds of billions to go to states and cities.
The summary also does not include a payroll tax cut— something that was pushed by President Donald Trump for both this stimulus package and last— and something that was rejected by Democrats and Republicans both times.
It does appear to show there has been at least some compromising between the Senate GOP and the White House. In addition to the tax cuts not being included, the increased testing and the money to schools that are not reopening are also things the Trump administration had opposed.
However, despite all that, there are still things the party is struggling to hammer out. According to reports, Senator Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) was hoping to roll out that package Thursday morning, but was instead met with yet another round negotiations between Senate GOP leaders and the White House.
As in the earlier negotiations, one of the major sticking points reportedly still up for debate was unemployment benefits. While the Republicans agree that they want to cut the jobless payments from the current $600, they disagree on how much they should cut.
According to reports, Senate Republicans had previously floated the idea of decreasing the benefits to $200 per week. Then CNBC reported Wednesday that they were now considering extending the benefits through the end of the year at just $100 a week.
However, on Thursday morning, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said the extension will be based on 70% wage replacement, which means that the benefits would amount to about 70% of a typical worker’s income while they were employed.
According to Ernie Tedeschi, an economist in the Treasury Department under the Obama administration who spoke to the Post, a 70% wage replaced would put the extended benefits at about $175 per week.
“If they lowered it to $200 a week, 30 million workers would wake up with a pay cut from a third to a half overnight,” he said. “While $200 is marginally better than full expiration, the U.S. would still take a major economic hit from this summer and this fall as a result from it.”
While that would be on top of state unemployment, those benefits vary drastically and often fall short. According to CNN, state benefits on their own generally replace only 40% of wages.
Upcoming Battle With Democrats
As Republicans continue struggling to come to a consensus, the clock is ticking.
With several key elements of the plan bound to a tight time table, Trump administration officials have emphasized the need to act by the end of next week.
“Let me just remind people: the time-sensitive issue we’re talking about is next Friday on unemployment and schools,” Mnuchin told reporters Thursday morning. “Some of this stuff, if it takes us a couple of weeks to work with the Democrats and agree on all the pieces we can.”
However, according to reports, McConnell has said that that timeline as unrealistic because, right now, Republicans have not even agreed on a bill within their own party. Once they do, they still face a battle with the Democrats, who have pushed for extending the $600 through the end of the year— a provision that was included in the $3 trillion stimulus bill passed by the House in May.
Even beyond the unemployment debate, many Republicans are worried that they will not be able to get Democrats on board with their proposals at all.
While speaking to reporters Wednesday, Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) said that even if Republicans do overcome their internal divisions, they would be unable to bridge the “pretty big gap” with Democrats, who support the $3 trillion bill, which prioritizes multiple things Republicans oppose.
In order to meet some of the pressing deadlines, both Senate Republicans and Trump administration officials have said that they intend to propose a series of bills, rather than just one comprehensive package. Democrats, however, have rejected that plan.
“This is a package. We cannot piecemeal this,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said in a press conference Thursday morning. “What we have seen so far falls very short of the challenge that we face in order to defeat the virus and to open our schools and to open our economy.”
“We’re not going to take care of one portion of suffering people and leave everyone else hanging,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) added at the same briefing Thursday. “This is a comprehensive proposal that addresses the many problems of COVID, and we have to address it as a totality. ”
“One of the reasons we’re up against this cliff is because Republicans have dithered,” Schumer added, saying that he and Pelosi had urged Republicans to come to the table three weeks ago, but they never responded.
“Now the Senate Republicans have finally woken up to the calamity in our country, they have been so divided, so disorganized and so unprepared that they have to struggle to draft even a partisan proposal within their own conference, they can’t come together. Even after all this time, it appears the Republican legislative response to COVID is ununified, unserious, and unsatisfactory.”
See what others are saying: (The New York Times) (Politico) (The Washington Post)
Mississippi Asks Supreme Court To Overturn Roe v. Wade
The Supreme Court’s decision to consider Mississippi’s restrictive abortion ban already has sweeping implications for the precedents set under the landmark reproductive rights ruling, but now the state is asking the high court to go even further.
Mississippi’s Abortion Case
Mississippi filed a brief Thursday asking the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade when it hears the state’s 15-week abortion ban this fall.
After months of deliberation, the high court agreed in May to hear what will be the first abortion case the 6-to-3 conservative majority will decide.
Both a district judge and a panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit had ruled that Mississippi could not enforce the 2018 law that banned nearly all abortions at 15 weeks with exceptions for only “severe fetal abnormality,” but not rape and incest.
If the Supreme Court upholds the Mississippi law, it would undo decades of precedent set under Roe in 1973 and upheld under Planned Parenthood v. Casey in 1992, where the court respectively ruled and reaffirmed that states could not ban abortion before the fetus is “viable” and can live outside the womb, which is generally around 24 to 28 weeks.
When the justices decided to hear the case, they said they would specifically examine the question of whether “all pre-viability prohibitions on elective abortions are unconstitutional.”
Depending on the scope of their decision on the Mississippi law, the court’s ruling could allow other states to pass much more restrictive abortion bans without the risk of lower courts striking down those laws.
As a result, legal experts have said the case will represent the most significant ruling on reproductive rights since Casey nearly three decades ago, and the Thursday brief raises the stakes even more.
When Mississippi asked the justices to take up its case last June, the state’s attorney general, Lynn Fitch (R), explicitly stated that the petition’s questions “do not require the Court to overturn Roe or Casey.”
But that was before the court’s conservatives solidified their supermajority with the appointment of Justice Amy Coney Barrett — who personally opposes abortion — following the death of liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
New Filing Takes Aim at Roe
With the new filing, it appears that Fitch views the high court’s altered makeup as an opportunity to undermine the constitutional framework that has been in place for the better part of the last century.
“The Constitution’s text says nothing about abortion,” Fitch wrote in the brief, arguing that American society has changed so much that the previous rulings need to be reheard.
“Today, adoption is accessible and on a wide scale women attain both professional success and a rich family life, contraceptives are more available and effective, and scientific advances show that an unborn child has taken on the human form and features months before viability,” she added, claiming the power should be left to state lawmakers.
“Roe and Casey shackle states to a view of the facts that is decades out of date,” she continued. “The national fever on abortion can break only when this Court returns abortion policy to the states.”
The Center for Reproductive Rights, which represents Mississippi’s sole abortion provider in the suit against the state’s law, painted Fitch’s effort as one that will have a chilling effect on abortion rights nationwide.
“Mississippi has stunningly asked the Supreme Court to overturn Roe and every other abortion rights decision in the last five decades,” Nancy Northup, the president and CEO of the group said in a statement Thursday. “Today’s brief reveals the extreme and regressive strategy, not just of this law, but of the avalanche of abortion bans and restrictions that are being passed across the country.”
The Supreme Court has not yet said exactly when during its fall term it will hear oral arguments on the Mississippi case, but a decision is expected to come down by next June or July, as is standard.
An anticipated ruling just months before the 2022 midterms will almost certainly position abortion as a top issue at the ballot box.
See what others are saying: (The New York Times) (The Washington Post) (Politico)
Republicans Boycott Jan. 6 Committee After Pelosi Rejects Two of McCarthy’s Picks
The House Minority Leader said that unless House Speaker Pelosi reinstated the two members, Republicans will launch their own investigation into the insurrection.
Pelosi Vetoes Republicans
Republicans are boycotting the select committee to investigate the insurrection after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Ca.) rejected two of the five GOP members Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Ca.) picked to serve on the panel Wednesday.
In a statement, Pelosi cited the “statements and actions” of Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Oh.) and Jim Banks (R-In.), whose nominations she said she was opposing “with respect for the integrity of the investigation.”
Jordan and Banks — both staunch allies of former President Donald Trump — have helped propagate the previous leader’s false election claims, opposed efforts to investigate the insurrection, and voted not to certify the election for President Joe Biden.
A senior Democratic aide also specifically told The Washington Post that Democrats did not want Jordan on the panel because he reportedly helped Trump strategized how to overturn the election and due to the fact he spoke to the then-president on Jan. 6, meaning there is a possibility he could be called to testify before the very same committee.
The aide also said that Democrats opposed Banks’ selection because of a statement he issued after McCarthy chose him.
In the statement, the representative compared the insurrection to the racial justice protests last summer, implied that the rioters were just normal American’s expressing their political views, and claimed the committee was a political ploy “to justify the Left’s authoritarian agenda.”
Notably, Pelosi did say she would accept McCarthy’s three other nominees — including Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Wi.), who also voted against certifying Biden’s win.
McCarthy Threatens Separate Investigation
McCarthy, however, refused to select new members, and instead opted to remove all his appointees from the would-be bipartisan committee.
In a statement condemning the move, the minority leader said that Pelosi’s action “represents an egregious abuse of power.”
“Denying the voices of members who have served in the military and law enforcement, as well as leaders of standing committees, has made it undeniable that this panel has lost all legitimacy and credibility and shows the Speaker is more interested in playing politics than seeking the truth,” he said.
“Unless Speaker Pelosi reverses course and seats all five Republican nominees, Republicans will not be party to their sham process and will instead pursue our own investigation of the facts.”
Pelosi defended her decision during a press conference Thursday, where she said that Banks and Jordan were “ridiculous” choices for the panel.
“When statements are ridiculous and fall into the realm of, ‘You must be kidding,’ there’s no way that they’re going to be on the committee,” she added.
See what others are saying: (The Washington Post) (The New York Times) (CNBC)
More Republican Are Pushing COVID Vaccinations, But the Party Remains Divided on Its Messaging
The renewed effort to encourage vaccination comes as the surge in COVID cases caused by the delta variant continues to disproportionately impact Republican-led states with low vaccination rates.
GOP Leaders Ramps Up Vaccination Push
In recent days, more Republican leaders and prominent conservatives have ramped up efforts to encourage members of their party to get vaccinated against COVID-19 as the U.S. continues to see massive surges from the delta variant.
Some, like Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.), have been pushing Americans to get vaccinated for months — a call he reiterated again on Tuesday. Many others, however, have been reticent to do the same until recently.
Most notable on that list is Rep. Steve Scalise (La.), the no. 2 Republican in House leadership, who just got his first dose over the weekend after resisting vaccination, claiming he had antibodies from previously contracting COVID. Scalise explained he changed his mind because of delta and encouraged others to do the same.
“There shouldn’t be any hesitancy over whether or not it’s safe and effective,” he said.
The top leader is set to continue pushing that advice. Earlier this week, the GOP Doctors Caucus announced that it would hold a news conference Thursday alongside Scalise and the third-ranking House Republican, Rep. Elise Stefanik (N.Y.), to encourage vaccination.
Rank and File Republicans Continue To Cast Doubt, Spread Misinformation
There are still plenty of Republicans working to undermine the renewed push to get their party vaccinated.
While many have painted vaccination as a matter of freedom of choice, others have sought to downplay the virus. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, whose state currently accounts for 40% of all new COVID cases, dismissed the spikes as the result of a “seasonal virus” on Monday.
Rep. Barry Loudermilk — who has had COVID twice — echoed that in a statement to reporters on Tuesday, where he argued that COVID is just something everyone has to live with.
“This is something we deal with in our lives on a daily basis; ever since I’ve been born, there’s sicknesses, there’s flu, there’s different diseases,” he said.
Some members of the GOP have used their positions of power to actively fight against vaccination. That includes Sen. Ron Johnson (Wi.), who has openly said he is not vaccinated. He has also been widely condemned for promoting unproven treatments and false information about vaccines during interviews and congressional hearings.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (Ga.), who has repeatedly refused to share her vaccination status, has also drawn ire for sharing misinformation and continually comparing COVID prevention efforts to the Holocaust.
Greene was temporarily suspended from Twitter earlier this week for sharing false information on Monday, but she continued to utilize her spotlight to spread misinformation about vaccine-related deaths and side effects during a press conference the following day.
While those who downplay the coronavirus and spread false information about vaccinations are certainly not representative of the entire Republican Party, they are some of the most visible.
Greene and many of her counterparts who push anti-vaccine narratives have frequently been accused of acting in inflammatory ways to get more press — a strategy that more often than not tends to work in their favor.
As a result, Republicans who want to encourage people to get the jabs will have their work cut out for them. Even many of those who have not openly expressed skepticism themselves have still let it flourish in the party for so long by not publicly pushing back against claims from members who sow disinformation.
The GOP’s broader failure to unify around a singular message on vaccines shows clearly among the party’s base.
According to a recent Washington Post-ABC News, poll 86% of Democrats have received at least one shot, but just 45% of Republicans have done the same. While just 6% of Democrats say they are not likely to get the vaccine, 47% of Republicans said they probably will not, and 38% said they definitely will not.
Meanwhile, Republican-led states with low vaccination rates are suffering the most from the new spike in cases and the rapid spread of the delta variant.
Arkansas, which has one of the lowest vaccination rates in the country at just 35%, is currently reporting the highest per-capita cases in the U.S. Hospitalizations have gone up 85% in the state in the last two weeks, placing some hospital systems on the brink of collapse — a problem also faced by parts of Missouri, which has the third-highest COVID cases nationwide.