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Unemployment Claims Rise Again as Lawmakers Debate Extending Benefits

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  • At least 1.4 million people filed for unemployment last week, marking the first time claims have increased since March. The move comes as the extra $600 in unemployment benefits are set to expire next week.
  • On Wednesday, Senate Republicans announced they had agreed to a tentative $1 trillion coronavirus stimulus deal with the White House, which, among other things, included an expansion of loans to small businesses, funding for COVID testing and vaccines, aid to schools, and more.
  • The bill was supposed to be rolled out Thursday morning, but again got held up by the ongoing negotiations that have been stalled for weeks because of divisions within the Republican party.

Unemployment Numbers Spike

The government reported Thursday that 1.4 million people filed for unemployment last week, marking the first time unemployment claims have increased since March.

Separately, another 980,000 new claims were filed by freelancers, part-time workers, and others who do not qualify for state unemployment benefits but can receive aid under the emergency federal program.

Notably, the government did report that the number of continuing claims— claims filed by people who are already receiving unemployment and filed again— did drop from 17.4 million for the week ending July 4 to 16.1 million for the week ending July 11.

However, that data is reported on a week lag, and thus does not account for any of the closures or restrictions that have been put in place over the last two weeks. It also does not represent the fact that the U.S. has now reported more coronavirus cases in the last two weeks alone than in all of June.

While this week’s numbers are still much lower than the numbers reported in March before they started steadily declining, the fact that this is the first uptick since then is significant because it shows a broader trend.

“What you’re seeing is that, as the economy slows, the pace of claims picks back up — which really puts at risk the monthly jobs report over the next few months,” Joseph Brusuelas the chief economist at RSM, a multi-national network of accounting firms told the Washington Post. “The July numbers are going to be tenuous, but it’s August that I’m worried about.”

The timing of the spike is also highly relevant because it comes as the additional $600 in federal unemployment benefits are set to expire in just over a week.

In addition to the 20 to 30 million people who will lose those benefits if and when they expire, many economists have also warned that it would have a very serious effect on the already faltering economy.

“There is one clear takeaway from this morning’s unemployment insurance report –not extending the weekly $600 benefit supplement would be unconscionable,” Andrew Stettner, a senior fellow at The Century Foundation told USA Today. “Families will be evicted from their homes, poverty will soar, children will go hungry, businesses will shutter and the economy will tank.”

Meanwhile, Back in Congress

As that deadline looms, Senate Republicans and the White House are still in the middle of hashing out the details of another coronavirus stimulus package.

For weeks now, that process has been stalled by internal divisions within the Republican Party. While some of the Republicans are divided on specific issues, including unemployment, others simply do not want another stimulus bill at all.

With those negotiations getting down to the wire, Senate GOP leaders announced Wednesday that they had reached a tentative $1 trillion deal with White House officials. According to a draft summary, which was obtained by The New York Times, there are several areas the Republicans have agreed.

Among other things, the summary included $26 billion for vaccine development and deployment, $25 billion for coronavirus testing, a total of $105 billion for education— $30 billion of which would be set aside for schools that reopen, and a second round of loans to small businesses with more loan forgiveness.

Notably, the document did say that there would be another round of stimulus checks, but it did not say how much they would be or who they would go to.

Also of note is what was not in the summary. The plan explicitly states Republicans will not give any money to state and local governments to help with budget holes and layoffs, though it does note that aid will likely be added back in during negotiations with the Democrats, who want hundreds of billions to go to states and cities. 

The summary also does not include a payroll tax cut— something that was pushed by President Donald Trump for both this stimulus package and last— and something that was rejected by Democrats and Republicans both times.

Divisions Linger 

It does appear to show there has been at least some compromising between the Senate GOP and the White House. In addition to the tax cuts not being included, the increased testing and the money to schools that are not reopening are also things the Trump administration had opposed.

However, despite all that, there are still things the party is struggling to hammer out. According to reports, Senator Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) was hoping to roll out that package Thursday morning, but was instead met with yet another round negotiations between Senate GOP leaders and the White House.

As in the earlier negotiations, one of the major sticking points reportedly still up for debate was unemployment benefits. While the Republicans agree that they want to cut the jobless payments from the current $600, they disagree on how much they should cut.

According to reports, Senate Republicans had previously floated the idea of decreasing the benefits to $200 per week. Then CNBC reported Wednesday that they were now considering extending the benefits through the end of the year at just $100 a week.

However, on Thursday morning, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said the extension will be based on 70% wage replacement, which means that the benefits would amount to about 70% of a typical worker’s income while they were employed.

According to Ernie Tedeschi, an economist in the Treasury Department under the Obama administration who spoke to the Post, a 70% wage replaced would put the extended benefits at about $175 per week.

“If they lowered it to $200 a week, 30 million workers would wake up with a pay cut from a third to a half overnight,” he said. “While $200 is marginally better than full expiration, the U.S. would still take a major economic hit from this summer and this fall as a result from it.”

While that would be on top of state unemployment, those benefits vary drastically and often fall short. According to CNN, state benefits on their own generally replace only 40% of wages.

Upcoming Battle With Democrats

As Republicans continue struggling to come to a consensus, the clock is ticking. 

With several key elements of the plan bound to a tight time table, Trump administration officials have emphasized the need to act by the end of next week.

“Let me just remind people: the time-sensitive issue we’re talking about is next Friday on unemployment and schools,” Mnuchin told reporters Thursday morning. “Some of this stuff, if it takes us a couple of weeks to work with the Democrats and agree on all the pieces we can.” 

However, according to reports, McConnell has said that that timeline as unrealistic because, right now, Republicans have not even agreed on a bill within their own party. Once they do, they still face a battle with the Democrats, who have pushed for extending the $600 through the end of the year— a provision that was included in the $3 trillion stimulus bill passed by the House in May.

Even beyond the unemployment debate, many Republicans are worried that they will not be able to get Democrats on board with their proposals at all. 

While speaking to reporters Wednesday, Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) said that even if Republicans do overcome their internal divisions, they would be unable to bridge the “pretty big gap” with Democrats, who support the $3 trillion bill, which prioritizes multiple things Republicans oppose.

In order to meet some of the pressing deadlines, both Senate Republicans and Trump administration officials have said that they intend to propose a series of bills, rather than just one comprehensive package. Democrats, however, have rejected that plan.

“This is a package. We cannot piecemeal this,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said in a press conference Thursday morning. “What we have seen so far falls very short of the challenge that we face in order to defeat the virus and to open our schools and to open our economy.” 

“We’re not going to take care of one portion of suffering people and leave everyone else hanging,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) added at the same briefing Thursday. “This is a comprehensive proposal that addresses the many problems of COVID, and we have to address it as a totality. ” 

“One of the reasons we’re up against this cliff is because Republicans have dithered,” Schumer added, saying that he and Pelosi had urged Republicans to come to the table three weeks ago, but they never responded.

“Now the Senate Republicans have finally woken up to the calamity in our country, they have been so divided, so disorganized and so unprepared that they have to struggle to draft even a partisan proposal within their own conference, they can’t come together. Even after all this time, it appears the Republican legislative response to COVID is ununified, unserious, and unsatisfactory.” 

See what others are saying: (The New York Times) (Politico) (The Washington Post)

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Trump Mocks Florida Gov. “Ron DeSanctimonious” Ahead of Possible 2024 Bid

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The former president may announce a bid to take back the White House on Nov. 14, according to his inner circle.


Trump Concocts His Latest Nickname

From “Little Marco” and “Lyin’ Ted” to “Sleepy Joe” and “Crazy Bernie,” former president Donald Trump’s nicknames for his political opponents have been known for their punchy style, but Republicans found it hard to swallow his latest mouthful for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

“We’re winning big, big, big in the Republican Party for the nomination like nobody’s ever seen before,” he said Saturday at a rally in Pennsylvania. “Trump at 71, Ron DeSanctimonious at 10%.”

The former president drew rebuke from some allies and conservative commentators for driving a wedge through the GOP three days before the midterm elections.

“DeSantis is an extremely effective conservative governor who has had real policy wins and real cultural wins,” tweeted The Daily Wire’s Matt Walsh. “Trump isn’t going to be able to take this one down with a dumb nickname. He better have more than that up his sleeve.”

“What an idiot,” wrote Rod Dreher, a senior editor at The American Conservative. “DeSantis is a far more effective leader of the Right than Trump was, if, that is, you expect a leader to get a lot done, rather than just talking about it and owning the libs.”

In April 2021, Trump said he would “certainly” consider making DeSantis his running mate for a potential 2024 presidential bid. But as DeSantis established himself as a credible rival to Trump, their relationship grew colder.

Last September, sources told The Washington Post that Trump had called DeSantis “ungrateful” in conversations with advisors. The former president reportedly had not spoken with the governor in months.

The Party of Trump or DeSantis?

One day after his “DeSanctimonious” jab, Trump took to the stage in Florida to support Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R) reelection campaign but grabbed more attention when he seemed to endorse DeSantis for governor.

“The people of Florida are going to reelect the wonderful, the great friend of mine, Marco Rubio to the United States Senate, and you’re going to reelect Ron DeSantis as your governor of your state,” he said to the cheering crowd.

The brief moment of support was overshadowed, however, by the conspicuous absence of DeSantis himself.

Both men held competing, contemporaneous rallies in the same state hundreds of miles apart, and multiple sources told Politico that DeSantis was not invited to Trump’s event, nor did he ask to attend.

The governor has repeatedly refused to say whether he will make a run for the presidency in 2024, but national polling consistently puts Trump ahead of him among Republicans by a wide margin.

Some recent polls, however, have shown DeSantis to lead the former president in specific states like Florida and New Hampshire.

A survey last month found that 72% of GOP voters believe DeSantis should have a great or good deal of influence in the future direction of the party, while just 64% said the same about Trump.

Sources told Axios that Trump’s inner circle is discussing a Nov. 14 announcement for his presidential campaign, timing it to capitalize on the expected post-midterm euphoria as vote counts roll in.

See what others are saying: (The New York Times) (Fox News) (Politico)

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The Midterms Are Tomorrow, But We May Not Have Results for a While. Here’s What You Need to Know

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The counting of mail-in ballots and possible legal challenges will almost certainly slow the final results.


Election Delays Expected

As Americans gear up for Election Day on Nov. 8, experts are warning that many races, including some of the most highly anticipated ones, may not have the final results in for days or even weeks.

These delays are completely normal and do not indicate that election fraud or issues with vote counting took place. However, like in 2020, former President Donald Trump and other election-denying Republicans could seize on the slow-coming returns to promote false claims to that effect.

There are a number of very legitimate reasons why it could take some time before the final results are solidified.  Each state has different rules for carrying out the election process, like when polls close and when ballots can start being counted.

There are also varying rules for when mail-in ballots can be received and counted that can extend when those votes will be tallied. That lag could seriously skew early results in many places because there has been a major rise in the number of people voting by mail.

Red Mirage, Blue Mirage

One very important thing to note is that the early returns seen on election night may not be representative of the final outcomes. 

In 2020, there was a lot of talk about a “red mirage,” which is when ballots cast on election day and favoring Republicans are reported first while mail-in ballots used more by Democrats are counted later, creating the appearance that Republicans have a much wider lead.

That phenomenon may very well take place in several key battlegrounds that not only could decide the House and the Senate but also have incredibly consequential state-wide elections of their own.

For example, in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, election officials cannot start counting mail-in and absentee ballots until Election Day. 

Some experts have also speculated that a similar occurrence could occur in Georiga because the suburbs — which have shifted blue in recent years — report their results later than rural counties.

At the same time, there are also some states where the opposite might happen: a blue mirage that makes it seem like Democrats are doing better than they actually are.

Such a scenario is possible in Arizona, where election officials can process mail-in ballots as soon as they receive them, and where a similar trend played out in 2020.

Other Possible Slow-Downs

Beyond all that, there are a number of other factors that could delay when results are finalized.

For example, in Georgia, candidates need to get at least 50% of the vote to win, and if none do, then the top two are sent to a run-off election on Dec. 6. That is a very real possibility for the state’s closely-watched Senate race because there is a libertarian on the ballot who could siphon enough votes from Republican Herschel Walker and Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock to keep them both below the 50% threshold. 

In other words: if control of the Senate comes down to Georgia again — as it did in 2020 and which is a very real possibility — voters may not know the outcome until a month after the election.

Meanwhile, experts also say that legal battles over mail-in ballots could further delay results, or even go to the Supreme Court. According to The New York Times, before Election Day, over 100 lawsuits had already been filed.

In Pennsylvania, for example, the State Supreme Court ruled last week in favor of a lawsuit from Republican groups requesting that mail-in ballots that did not have dates on outer envelopes be invalidated, causing thousands of ballots to be set aside. Multiple rights groups are now suing to get that decision reversed. 

See what others are saying: (NPR) (ABC News) (Reuters)

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DHS Confirms Paul Pelosi Attacker is a Canadian National in the U.S. Illegally

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The suspect espoused many political conspiracy theories promoted by the American far-right and told investigators he wished to harm House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to send a message to other U.S. politicians.


Pelosi Attacker’s Immigration Issues

The man accused of attacking Paul Pelosi and trying to kidnap House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Ca.) is a Canadian national currently residing in the United States illegally, according to a statement from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) late Wednesday.

Law enforcement officials say the suspect embraced far-right conspiracies about U.S. politicians and told investigators he wanted to break the House Speaker’s kneecaps as a lesson to other members of Congress. 

Despite his lack of citizenship, the man also allegedly told police he was on a “suicide mission” and had a list of state and federal lawmakers he wanted to target.

In its statement to the media, DHS said that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) had lodged a “detainer” on the suspect, which is a notice the agency intends to take custody of an individual who could be deported and requests it be notified before that person is released. The detainer, however, likely will not impact the case against him, because deportations are civil proceedings that happen after criminal cases are resolved.

According to several reports, federal records indicate the suspect came to the U.S. legally via Mexico in March 2008. Canadians who travel to America for business or pleasure are usually able to stay in the country for six months without a visa. DHS told The Washington Post the Canadian citizen was admitted as a “temporary visitor” traveling for pleasure.

Before the confirmation from DHS, there was some mixed reporting on how long the suspected attacker has been in America. On Monday, an anonymous U.S. official told the Associated Press the man had legally entered in 2000 but stayed way after his visa expired.

One day later, The New York Times reported he was registered to vote in San Francisco County from 2002 to 2009, and even voted once in 2002. 

Heightened Security Concerns

The new revelation comes as lawmakers are facing increased threats, prompting conversations about safety and security with a specific focus on the role of the U.S. Capitol Police (USCP).

On Tuesday, multiple outlets reported that USCP security cameras trained on the Pelosi’s house actually captured the attack, but no one was watching. In a statement Wednesday, the agency said its command center has access to around 1,800 cameras and not all are watched constantly.

The Capitol Police also said that the Pelosi’s home is “actively” monitored “around the clock” when the Speaker is there, but not when she is in Washington.

As a result, many argued that there should be more security and surveillance for the second person in line for the presidency — especially given the threat of violence after the Jan. 6 insurrection and warnings from law enforcement ahead of the midterms.

That was echoed in a scathing letter yesterday sent to Capitol Police by Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Ca.), who is one of the most senior Democrats in Congress and heads the Administration Committee.

In her letter, Lofgren noted that the agency “has previously reported to the committee that the speaker receives the most threats of any member of Congress,” and asked why that protection was not extended “to the spouses and/or other family members of the congressional leaders in the presidential line of succession.”

She questioned why the USCP had turned down an offer from the FBI for some of its officers to be part of terrorism task forces investigating threats against Congressmembers and why it had not made a formal agreement with San Francisco police for a car to be posted at the Pelosi’s home 24-hours a day as had been done in the months after Jan. 6.

Lofgren also inquired why the Capitol Police did not direct more threats against lawmakers for prosecution. She noted that members of Congress received at least 9,625 threats in 2021, but just 217 were referred.

Editor’s Note: At Rogue Rocket, we make it a point to not include the names and pictures of mass murders, suspected mass murderers, or those accused of committing violent crimes who may have been seeking attention or infamy. Therefore, we will not be linking to other sources, as they may contain these details.

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