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Scientists Warn Warm Weather May Not Slow the Coronavirus, But Social Distancing May Be Flattening the Curve

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  • The National Academies of Sciences is warning the White House not to rely on warmer weather to slow the spread of the coronavirus.
  • This is because many factors can affect the virus, the most notable being the “lack of host immunity globally”  since this is a new virus.
  • Despite this, there is hope that the virus is beginning to slow its spread in the United States because of social distancing measures. 
  • Still, officials warn that continuing to practice social distancing even as parts of the U.S. flatten the curve will be key in gaining control over the outbreak.

We’re “Likely” Beginning to See a Flattening of the Curve

The goal of “flattening the curve” has been on the minds of many Americans over the past few weeks, and now certain areas in the United States could be beginning to experience that.

Despite New York reporting 799 deaths in the Empire State on Thursday—it’s highest single-day death toll—over the last few days, the number of people checking into hospitals for COVID-19 has stabilized and even started to go down. 

Prompted by a question by Savannah Guthrie on The Today Show Thursday morning, leading Coronavirus Task Force expert Dr. Anthony Fauci said the state’s condition could be turning around and it may be starting to see a flattening of the curve.

“You know, I don’t want to jump the gun on that, Savannah, but I think that is the case,” Fauci said. “You want to see a steady, several day program and profile like that. I think that’s what’s going on. I’m always very cautious about jumping the gun and saying, ‘Well, we have turned the corner’ but I think we are really looking at the beginning of that, which would really be very encouraging. We need that right now.” 

In Washington, Oregon and California, the virus has also slowed. Like New York, officials have credited social distancing measures as key to those successes. 

In fact, because of social distancing, Fauci says he believes the U.S. will see around 60,000 deaths—much less than the 100,000 to 240,000 deaths the Coronavirus Task Force had predicted only two weeks ago.

Still, Fauci warned that despite the seemingly good news, now is not the time to let up on social distancing measures.

“But, having said that, we better be careful that we don’t say, ‘Okay, we’re doing so well that we can pull back,’” he said. “We still have to put our foot on the accelerator when it comes to the mitigation and the physical separation.” 

On Wednesday, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo urged his state to continue practicing social distancing measures to avoid a second spike in cases.

“So to the extent that we are seeing a flattening or a possible plateau of the curve, that’s because of what we are doing, and we have to keep doing it,” Cuomo said. “I know it’s hard, but we have to keep doing it.” 

“If we stop what we are doing, you will see that curve change,” Cuomo added in warning. 

Cuomo also seemed to indicate that New York may not fully return to normal anytime soon. After being asked about the Broadway League announcing tentative plans to reopen by June 7, Cuomo told people not to use that as a “barometer” for when non-essential businesses could reopen.

He added that decisions to reopen places like schools and workplaces need to come first and that even those decisions will rely on infection rates and the state’s ability to protect people in the vulnerable population. 

In California, lockdown measures may also take a while to be lifted because Governor Gavin Newsom doesn’t expect the peak of the state’s outbreak to happen until mid-May.

AG Barr Says U.S. Must Re-evaluate “Draconian” Measures Soon

However, in an interview with Laura Ingraham on Fox News Thursday, Attorney General Bill Barr suggested that once the White House’s social distancing measures expire at the end of the month, the government should start potentially easing lockdown measures.

“I think we have to be very careful to make sure that the draconian measures that are being adopted are fully justified, and they’re not alternative ways of protecting people,” he told Ingraham. “When this period of time, at the end of April, expires, I think we have to allow people to adapt more than we have, and not just tell people to go home and hide under their bed, but allow them to use other ways — social distancing and other means — to protect themselves.”

Barr and Ingraham also discussed recent restrictions on religious gatherings in many states. While Barr said he believed governments have the right to prohibit such gatherings in times of emergency, he also said that rule only applies if churches are treated the same as any other institution.

Scientists Warn Virus Won’t Likely Go Away With Warm Weather

Despite optimism that parts of the U.S. are flattening the curve, researchers with the National Academies of Sciences have sent a letter to the White House telling it not to rely on warmer weather to slow the spread of the virus.

That’s because despite some evidence suggesting that this virus “may transmit less efficiently in environments with higher ambient temperature and humidity, given the lack of host immunity globally, this reduction in transmission efficiency may not lead to a significant reduction in disease spread.”

The letter comes in spite of Trump having made the claim in February that warmer weather would kill the virus.

The report also goes on to explain that multiple factors “besides environmental temperature, humidity, and survival outside of the host” influence how the virus spreads among people around the world. 

Those researchers also highlighted countries already experiencing “summer” climates like Australia and Iran, which have both seen rapid spread of the virus.

See what others are saying: (The Washington Post) (The New York Post) (CNN)

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Lincoln College to Close for Good After COVID and Ransomware Attack Ruin Finances

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Last year, 1,043 schools in the U.S. were the victim of ransomware attacks, including 26 colleges or universities, according to an analysis by Emsisoft.


One of the Only Historically Black Colleges in the Midwest Goes Down

After 157 years of educating mostly Black students in Illinois, Lincoln College will close its doors for good on Friday.

The college made the announcement last month, citing financial troubles caused by the coronavirus pandemic and a ransomware attack in December.

Enrollment dropped during the pandemic and the administration had to make costly investments in technology and campus safety measures, according to a statement from the school.

A shrinking endowment put additional pressure on the college’s budget.

The ransomware attack, which the college has said originated from Iran, thwarted admissions activities and hindered access to all institutional data. Systems for recruitment, retention, and fundraising were completely inoperable at a time when the administration needed them most.

In March, the college paid the ransom, which it has said amounted to less than $100,000. But according to Lincoln’s statement, subsequent projections showed enrollment shortfalls so significant the college would need a transformational donation or partnership to make it beyond the present semester.

The college put out a request for $50 million in a last-ditch effort to save itself, but no one came forward to provide it.

A GoFundMe aiming to raise $20 million for the college only collected $2,452 as of Tuesday.

Students and Employees Give a Bittersweet Goodbye

“The loss of history, careers, and a community of students and alumni is immense,” David Gerlach, the college’s president, said in a statement.

Lincoln counts nearly 1,000 enrolled students, and those who did not graduate this spring will leave the institution without degrees.

Gerlach has said that 22 colleges have worked with Lincoln to accept the remaining students, including their credits, tuition prices, and residency requirements.

“I was shocked and saddened by that news because of me being a freshman, so now I have to find someplace for me to go,” one student told WMBD News after the closure was announced.

When a group of students confronted Gerlach at his office about the closure, he responded with an emotional speech.

“I have been fighting hard to save this place,” he said. “But resources are resources. We’ve done everything we possibly could.”

On April 30, alumni were invited back to the campus to revisit the highlights of their college years before the institution closed.

On Saturday, the college held its final graduation ceremony, where over 200 students accepted their diplomas and Quentin Brackenridge performed the Lincoln Alma Mater.

Last year, 1,043 schools in the U.S. were the victim of ransomware attacks, including 26 colleges or universities, according to an analysis by Emsisoft.

See what others are saying: (The New York Times) (Herald Review) (CNN)

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U.S. Tops One Million Coronavirus Deaths, WHO Estimates 15 Million Worldwide

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India’s real COVID death toll stands at about 4.7 million, ten times higher than official data, the WHO estimated.


One Million Dead

The United States officially surpassed one million coronavirus deaths Wednesday, 26 months after the first death was reported in late February of 2020.

Experts believe that figure is likely an undercount, since there are around 200,000 excess deaths, though some of those may not be COVID-related.

The figure is the equivalent of the population of San Jose, the tenth-largest city in the U.S., vanishing in just over two years. To put the magnitude in visual perspective, NECN published a graphic illustrating what one million deaths looks like.

At the beginning of the pandemic, the White House predicted between 100,000 and 240,000 Americans would die from the coronavirus in a best-case scenario.

By February 2021, over half a million Americans had died of COVID.

The coronavirus has become the third leading cause of death in the U.S. behind heart disease and cancer.

The pandemic’s effects go beyond its death toll. Around a quarter of a million children have lost a caregiver to the virus, including about 200,000 who lost one or both parents. Every COVID-related death leaves an estimated nine people grieving.

The virus has hit certain industries harder than others, with food and agriculture, warehouse operations and manufacturing, and transportation and construction seeing especially high death rates.

People’s mental health has also been affected, with a study in January of five Western countries including the U.S. finding that 13% of people reported symptoms of PTSD attributable to actual or potential contact with the virus.

Fifteen Million Dead

On Thursday, the World Health Organization estimated that nearly 15 million people have died from the pandemic worldwide, a dramatic revision from the 5.4 million previously reported in official statistics.

Between January 2020 and the end of last year, the WHO estimated that between 13.3 million and 16.6 million people died either due to the coronavirus directly or because of factors somehow attributed to the pandemic’s impact on health systems, such as cancer patients who were unable to seek treatment when hospitals were full of COVID patients.

Based on that range, scientists arrived at an approximate total of 14.9 million.

The new estimate shows a 13% increase in deaths than is usually expected for a two-year period.

“This may seem like just a bean-counting exercise, but having these WHO numbers is so critical to understanding how we should combat future pandemics and continue to respond to this one,” Dr. Albert Ko, an infectious diseases specialist at the Yale School of Public Health who was not linked to the WHO research, told the Associated Press.

Most of the deaths occurred in Southeast Asia, Europe, and the Americas.

According to the WHO, India counts the most deaths by far with 4.7 million, ten times its official number.

See what others are saying: (NBC) (U.S. News and World Report) (Scientific American)

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Official Says Missing Alabama Convict and Corrections Officer Had a “Special Relationship”

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Authorities have also said they now believe the officer willfully helped the inmate escape.


New Information on Missing Inmate & Officer

Authorities in Alabama revealed Tuesday that Assistant Director of Corrections for Lauderdale County Vicky White, who is accused of helping a murder suspect Casey Cole White escape from jail, had a “special relationship” with the inmate.

“Investigators received information from inmates at the Lauderdale County Detention Center over the weekend that there was a special relationship between Director White and inmate Casey White,” Lauderdale County Sheriff Rick Singleton said in a statement. “That relationship has now been confirmed through our investigation by independent sources and means.”

Officials have previously said that the two are not related, despite their shared surname.

Singleton elaborated on the nature of the relationship while speaking to CNN later on Tuesday. He said it took place “outside of her normal work hours” and added that although it did not include “physical contact,” he still characterized it as “a relationship of a different nature.”

“We were told Casey White got special privileges and was treated differently while in the facility than the other inmates,” Singleton said.

Also on Tuesday, the Marshals Service issued a statement confirming that authorities believe Officer White had helped Mr. White escape. The authorities described her as a “wanted fugitive” and offered a $5,000 reward for any information on her whereabouts. Earlier this week, the Marshals Service also offered a $10,000 reward for any information that could lead to Mr. White’s capture.

Singleton echoed the belief that Officer White’s actions were intentional while speaking to Good Morning America Wednesday.

“I think all of our employees and myself included were really hoping that she did not participate in this willingly. But all indications are that she absolutely did,” he said. “We’re very disappointed in that because we had the utmost trust in her as an employee and as an assistant director of corrections.”

Mysterious Escape

Vicky White and Casey White were last seen leaving the Lauderdale County jail just after 9:30 a.m. Friday. The officer told other employees that she was taking the inmate to a mental health evaluation at a courthouse just down the road, and that she would be going to a medical appointment after because she was not feeling well.

Officials later said her actions violated an official policy that required two sworn deputies to transport people with murder charges. In 2020, Mr. White was charged with two counts of capital murder in connection to a fatal stabbing he confessed to and was awaiting his trial in Lauderdale County.

Mr. White was also serving time for what officials said was a “crime spree” in 2015 which included home invasion, carjacking, and a police chase. He had also previously tried to escape from jail, police said.

It wasn’t until 3:30 p.m. on Friday that a jail employee reported to higher-ups that he was not able to reach Officer White on her phone and that Mr. White had never been returned to his cell.

During a press conference that same night, Singleton told reporters that there had never even been a scheduled mental health evaluation. At another briefing Monday, he announced that an arrest warrant had been issued for Vicky on a charge of “permitting or facilitating an escape in the first degree.”

At the time, Singleton said it was unclear “whether she did that willingly or was coerced or threatened” but added, “we know for sure she did participate.” 

See what others are saying: (CNN) (ABC News) (NPR)

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