- Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) dropped out of the 2020 presidential race Monday, just one day after South Bend Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg suspended his campaign.
- The move comes just a day ahead of Super Tuesday, where 14 states are voting and one-third of the total delegates are up for grabs.
- Here’s what you need to know for the most significant day of voting in the presidential election so far.
What’s at Stake
Super Tuesday is upon us, at last.
While the four early primaries have been key for the candidates’ momentum, Super Tuesday is really where the numbers come into play.
In order to win the nomination, a candidate needs to get a majority of delegates, or 1,991.
Right now, only 155 delegates have been allocated from the first four races. By contrast, 1,357 are going to be given in tomorrow’s races— almost nine-times the amount from the first four races combined.
After that, about 40% of the total delegates will have been given out. The sheer magnitude of delegates at stake here really can’t be overstated, and clearly this is going to be make-or-break for some candidates.
Races to Watch
The biggest two races to watch out for are California and Texas.
These are the two most populous states and have the most delegates out of all the primaries in the country— not just the Super Tuesday primaries. California has 415 delegates up for grabs, Texas has 228.
Analysis from FiveThirtyEight projects that Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) will win California with an average of 34% of the vote, while former Vice President Joe Biden is forecast to win Texas with an average of 30%.
Notably, this isn’t winner-takes-all like the general election— no one is going to get all of California’s 415 delegates. When we say Sanders is the most likely to “win” California, it just means he’s predicted to get the most delegates.
To that point, FiveThirtyEight also predicts that Biden will win with an average 33% of the vote in North Carolina and an average of 30% in Virginia— the state’s that have the third and fourth biggest delegate counts out of the 14 voting tomorrow.
This is important to note, because even if Sanders wins a majority in California and a majority in smaller states where he’s popular, he could still end up with less delegates than Biden.
Especially if Biden sweeps in those middle-level states like Virginia and North Carolina, which have similar demographics to South Carolina, which he won by a landslide on Saturday winning over 48% of the vote.
Another state to watch out for is Massachusetts, which Warren represents in the Senate. Warren has been polling at the bottom of the bracket recently, and if she loses her own state, that doesn’t look good at all, and she will probably be pushed to drop out.
Right now, FiveThirtyEight actually has Sanders winning an average 30% of the vote in Massachusetts, while Warren comes in second with 25%.
Moderates Are Consolidating
The decision by both Klobuchar and Buttigieg to suspend their campaigns is part of a clear effort to consolidate moderate votes on Super Tuesday.
Experts and moderate voters, especially those who do not want to see Sanders take home the nomination, have long worried that too many centrists candidates in the race will split the ticket and lead to a contested convention— where no candidate has a majority of delegates after the primaries.
A better strategy to avoid this and have a better shot at taking on Sanders, they argue, would be to rally as much moderate support as possible around one candidate.
After a long road, it seems like that is exactly what Klobuchar and Buttigieg are now doing.
On Monday, Klobuchar’s campaign told reporters the senator would be endorsing Biden. While Buttigieg did not endorse anyone when he announced he was suspending his campaign, one of his top advisors told Reuters he would also be endorsing Biden.
Biden, who lagged behind after the first couple primaries, is now trying to ride the momentum from his win in South Carolina. Despite his below-average initial showing, the former vice president is doing well in both state and national polls.
Though, in the past, Biden has polled well in states where he did not end up doing well, like Iowa.
While Buttigieg and Klobuchar’s endorsements are likely to push more voters and ultimately more delegates to Biden, it’s unclear how much it will move the needle.
One thing that could problematize this is the fact that former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg is now in the race, and tomorrow will be the first set of primaries where he’s on the ballot. Bloomberg, a moderate who is expected to pull votes from Biden, has been pouring millions into key Super Tuesday races.
The Problem With Delegates
There is another problem too: delegates.
After the first four races, Buttigieg was in third place for delegates with a total of 26, while Klobuchar trailed with just 7.
The process for allocating and re-allocating delegates is incredibly complicated, but all you need to know is that most of their delegates will eventually be given to someone else.
But here’s the thing: even though they’re no longer in the race, they could technically still get delegates in Super Tuesday.
There are two reasons for that. First of all, their campaign has just been suspended, not withdrawn, so they can still appear on primary ballots. Second, a lot of people in Super Tuesday states have already voted early or mailed in their ballots before they announced they were dropping.
For example, according to the California Secretary of State, more than 2.7 million of 20.6 million registered voters turned in their ballots as of Thursday— and even more did so this weekend.
Notably, aggregated polls showed Buttigieg at 7.7% and Klobuchar at 4.7% in California. If those polls end up mirroring the early votes that have already been turned in, more than 324,000 people in California alone could have voted for candidates who are not in the race.
Those numbers are even more staggering in smaller states like Utah, where, according to reports, nearly 23% of active voters have already voted, and where Buttigieg was polling at 18%.
While that would likely complicate an already confusing process at the national convention, Buttigieg and Klobuchar’s decision to drop out will almost certainly help Biden in the long-run.
See what others are saying: (NPR) (FiveThirtyEight) (NBC News)
Biden Calls on Congress To Extend Eviction Moratorium
The move comes just two days before the federal ban is set to expire.
Eviction Freeze Set To Expire
President Joe Biden asked Congress on Thursday to extend the federal eviction moratorium for another month just two days before the ban was set to expire.
The request follows a Supreme Court decision last month, where the justices ruled the evictions freeze could stay in place until it expired on July 31. That decision was made after a group of landlords sued, arguing that the moratorium was illegal under the public health law the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had relied on to implement it.
While the court did not provide reasons for its ruling, Justice Brett Kavanaugh issued a short concurring opinion explaining that although he thought the CDC “exceeded its existing statutory authority,” he voted not to end the program because it was already set to expire in a month.
In a statement Thursday, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki cited the Supreme Court decision, as well as the recent surge in COVID cases, as reasons for the decision to call on Congress.
“Given the recent spread of the delta variant, including among those Americans both most likely to face evictions and lacking vaccinations, President Biden would have strongly supported a decision by the CDC to further extend this eviction moratorium to protect renters at this moment of heightened vulnerability,” she said.
“Unfortunately, the Supreme Court has made clear that this option is no longer available.”
Delays in Relief Distribution
The move comes as the administration has struggled to distribute the nearly $47 billion in rental relief funds approved as part of two coronavirus relief packages passed in December and March, respectively.
Nearly seven months after the first round of funding was approved, the Treasury Department has only allocated $3 billion of the reserves, and just 600,000 tenants have been helped under the program.
A total of 7.4 million households are behind on rent according to the most recent data from the Census Bureau. An estimated 3.6 million of those households could face eviction in the next two months if the moratorium expires.
The distribution problems largely stem from the fact that many states and cities tasked with allocating the fund had no infrastructure to do so, causing the aid to be held up by delays, confusion, and red tape.
Some states opened portals that were immediately overwhelmed, prompting them to close off applications, while others have faced technical glitches.
According to The Washington Post, just 36 out of more than 400 states, counties, and cities that reported data to the Treasury Department were able to spend even half of the money allotted them by the end of June. Another 49 — including New York — had not spent any funds at all.
Slim Chances in Congress
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Ca.) urged her colleagues to approve an extension for the freeze Thursday night, calling it “a moral imperative” and arguing that “families must not pay the price” for the slow distribution of aid.
However, Biden’s last-minute call for Congress to act before members leave for their August recess is all but ensured to fail.
While the House Rules Committee took up a measure Thursday night that would extend the moratorium until the end of this year, the only way it could pass in the Senate would be through a procedure called unanimous consent, which can be blocked by a single dissenting vote.
Some Senate Republicans have already rejected the idea.
“There’s no way I’m going to support this. It was a bad idea in the first place,” Senator Patrick Toomey (R-Pa.) told reporters. “Owners have the right to action. They need to have recourse for the nonpayment of rent.”
With the hands of the CDC tied and Congressional action seemingly impossible, the U.S. could be facing an unprecedented evictions crisis Saturday, even though millions of Americans who will now risk losing their homes should have already received rental assistance to avert this exact situation.
See what others are saying: (The Washington Post) (The New York Times) (The Associated Press)
Mississippi Asks Supreme Court To Overturn Roe v. Wade
The Supreme Court’s decision to consider Mississippi’s restrictive abortion ban already has sweeping implications for the precedents set under the landmark reproductive rights ruling, but now the state is asking the high court to go even further.
Mississippi’s Abortion Case
Mississippi filed a brief Thursday asking the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade when it hears the state’s 15-week abortion ban this fall.
After months of deliberation, the high court agreed in May to hear what will be the first abortion case the 6-to-3 conservative majority will decide.
Both a district judge and a panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit had ruled that Mississippi could not enforce the 2018 law that banned nearly all abortions at 15 weeks with exceptions for only “severe fetal abnormality,” but not rape and incest.
If the Supreme Court upholds the Mississippi law, it would undo decades of precedent set under Roe in 1973 and upheld under Planned Parenthood v. Casey in 1992, where the court respectively ruled and reaffirmed that states could not ban abortion before the fetus is “viable” and can live outside the womb, which is generally around 24 to 28 weeks.
When the justices decided to hear the case, they said they would specifically examine the question of whether “all pre-viability prohibitions on elective abortions are unconstitutional.”
Depending on the scope of their decision on the Mississippi law, the court’s ruling could allow other states to pass much more restrictive abortion bans without the risk of lower courts striking down those laws.
As a result, legal experts have said the case will represent the most significant ruling on reproductive rights since Casey nearly three decades ago, and the Thursday brief raises the stakes even more.
When Mississippi asked the justices to take up its case last June, the state’s attorney general, Lynn Fitch (R), explicitly stated that the petition’s questions “do not require the Court to overturn Roe or Casey.”
But that was before the court’s conservatives solidified their supermajority with the appointment of Justice Amy Coney Barrett — who personally opposes abortion — following the death of liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
New Filing Takes Aim at Roe
With the new filing, it appears that Fitch views the high court’s altered makeup as an opportunity to undermine the constitutional framework that has been in place for the better part of the last century.
“The Constitution’s text says nothing about abortion,” Fitch wrote in the brief, arguing that American society has changed so much that the previous rulings need to be reheard.
“Today, adoption is accessible and on a wide scale women attain both professional success and a rich family life, contraceptives are more available and effective, and scientific advances show that an unborn child has taken on the human form and features months before viability,” she added, claiming the power should be left to state lawmakers.
“Roe and Casey shackle states to a view of the facts that is decades out of date,” she continued. “The national fever on abortion can break only when this Court returns abortion policy to the states.”
The Center for Reproductive Rights, which represents Mississippi’s sole abortion provider in the suit against the state’s law, painted Fitch’s effort as one that will have a chilling effect on abortion rights nationwide.
“Mississippi has stunningly asked the Supreme Court to overturn Roe and every other abortion rights decision in the last five decades,” Nancy Northup, the president and CEO of the group said in a statement Thursday. “Today’s brief reveals the extreme and regressive strategy, not just of this law, but of the avalanche of abortion bans and restrictions that are being passed across the country.”
The Supreme Court has not yet said exactly when during its fall term it will hear oral arguments on the Mississippi case, but a decision is expected to come down by next June or July, as is standard.
An anticipated ruling just months before the 2022 midterms will almost certainly position abortion as a top issue at the ballot box.
See what others are saying: (The New York Times) (The Washington Post) (Politico)
Republicans Boycott Jan. 6 Committee After Pelosi Rejects Two of McCarthy’s Picks
The House Minority Leader said that unless House Speaker Pelosi reinstated the two members, Republicans will launch their own investigation into the insurrection.
Pelosi Vetoes Republicans
Republicans are boycotting the select committee to investigate the insurrection after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Ca.) rejected two of the five GOP members Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Ca.) picked to serve on the panel Wednesday.
In a statement, Pelosi cited the “statements and actions” of Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Oh.) and Jim Banks (R-In.), whose nominations she said she was opposing “with respect for the integrity of the investigation.”
Jordan and Banks — both staunch allies of former President Donald Trump — have helped propagate the previous leader’s false election claims, opposed efforts to investigate the insurrection, and voted not to certify the election for President Joe Biden.
A senior Democratic aide also specifically told The Washington Post that Democrats did not want Jordan on the panel because he reportedly helped Trump strategized how to overturn the election and due to the fact he spoke to the then-president on Jan. 6, meaning there is a possibility he could be called to testify before the very same committee.
The aide also said that Democrats opposed Banks’ selection because of a statement he issued after McCarthy chose him.
In the statement, the representative compared the insurrection to the racial justice protests last summer, implied that the rioters were just normal American’s expressing their political views, and claimed the committee was a political ploy “to justify the Left’s authoritarian agenda.”
Notably, Pelosi did say she would accept McCarthy’s three other nominees — including Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Wi.), who also voted against certifying Biden’s win.
McCarthy Threatens Separate Investigation
McCarthy, however, refused to select new members, and instead opted to remove all his appointees from the would-be bipartisan committee.
In a statement condemning the move, the minority leader said that Pelosi’s action “represents an egregious abuse of power.”
“Denying the voices of members who have served in the military and law enforcement, as well as leaders of standing committees, has made it undeniable that this panel has lost all legitimacy and credibility and shows the Speaker is more interested in playing politics than seeking the truth,” he said.
“Unless Speaker Pelosi reverses course and seats all five Republican nominees, Republicans will not be party to their sham process and will instead pursue our own investigation of the facts.”
Pelosi defended her decision during a press conference Thursday, where she said that Banks and Jordan were “ridiculous” choices for the panel.
“When statements are ridiculous and fall into the realm of, ‘You must be kidding,’ there’s no way that they’re going to be on the committee,” she added.