- Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) dropped out of the 2020 presidential race Monday, just one day after South Bend Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg suspended his campaign.
- The move comes just a day ahead of Super Tuesday, where 14 states are voting and one-third of the total delegates are up for grabs.
- Here’s what you need to know for the most significant day of voting in the presidential election so far.
What’s at Stake
Super Tuesday is upon us, at last.
While the four early primaries have been key for the candidates’ momentum, Super Tuesday is really where the numbers come into play.
In order to win the nomination, a candidate needs to get a majority of delegates, or 1,991.
Right now, only 155 delegates have been allocated from the first four races. By contrast, 1,357 are going to be given in tomorrow’s races— almost nine-times the amount from the first four races combined.
After that, about 40% of the total delegates will have been given out. The sheer magnitude of delegates at stake here really can’t be overstated, and clearly this is going to be make-or-break for some candidates.
Races to Watch
The biggest two races to watch out for are California and Texas.
These are the two most populous states and have the most delegates out of all the primaries in the country— not just the Super Tuesday primaries. California has 415 delegates up for grabs, Texas has 228.
Analysis from FiveThirtyEight projects that Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) will win California with an average of 34% of the vote, while former Vice President Joe Biden is forecast to win Texas with an average of 30%.
Notably, this isn’t winner-takes-all like the general election— no one is going to get all of California’s 415 delegates. When we say Sanders is the most likely to “win” California, it just means he’s predicted to get the most delegates.
To that point, FiveThirtyEight also predicts that Biden will win with an average 33% of the vote in North Carolina and an average of 30% in Virginia— the state’s that have the third and fourth biggest delegate counts out of the 14 voting tomorrow.
This is important to note, because even if Sanders wins a majority in California and a majority in smaller states where he’s popular, he could still end up with less delegates than Biden.
Especially if Biden sweeps in those middle-level states like Virginia and North Carolina, which have similar demographics to South Carolina, which he won by a landslide on Saturday winning over 48% of the vote.
Another state to watch out for is Massachusetts, which Warren represents in the Senate. Warren has been polling at the bottom of the bracket recently, and if she loses her own state, that doesn’t look good at all, and she will probably be pushed to drop out.
Right now, FiveThirtyEight actually has Sanders winning an average 30% of the vote in Massachusetts, while Warren comes in second with 25%.
Moderates Are Consolidating
The decision by both Klobuchar and Buttigieg to suspend their campaigns is part of a clear effort to consolidate moderate votes on Super Tuesday.
Experts and moderate voters, especially those who do not want to see Sanders take home the nomination, have long worried that too many centrists candidates in the race will split the ticket and lead to a contested convention— where no candidate has a majority of delegates after the primaries.
A better strategy to avoid this and have a better shot at taking on Sanders, they argue, would be to rally as much moderate support as possible around one candidate.
After a long road, it seems like that is exactly what Klobuchar and Buttigieg are now doing.
On Monday, Klobuchar’s campaign told reporters the senator would be endorsing Biden. While Buttigieg did not endorse anyone when he announced he was suspending his campaign, one of his top advisors told Reuters he would also be endorsing Biden.
Biden, who lagged behind after the first couple primaries, is now trying to ride the momentum from his win in South Carolina. Despite his below-average initial showing, the former vice president is doing well in both state and national polls.
Though, in the past, Biden has polled well in states where he did not end up doing well, like Iowa.
While Buttigieg and Klobuchar’s endorsements are likely to push more voters and ultimately more delegates to Biden, it’s unclear how much it will move the needle.
One thing that could problematize this is the fact that former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg is now in the race, and tomorrow will be the first set of primaries where he’s on the ballot. Bloomberg, a moderate who is expected to pull votes from Biden, has been pouring millions into key Super Tuesday races.
The Problem With Delegates
There is another problem too: delegates.
After the first four races, Buttigieg was in third place for delegates with a total of 26, while Klobuchar trailed with just 7.
The process for allocating and re-allocating delegates is incredibly complicated, but all you need to know is that most of their delegates will eventually be given to someone else.
But here’s the thing: even though they’re no longer in the race, they could technically still get delegates in Super Tuesday.
There are two reasons for that. First of all, their campaign has just been suspended, not withdrawn, so they can still appear on primary ballots. Second, a lot of people in Super Tuesday states have already voted early or mailed in their ballots before they announced they were dropping.
For example, according to the California Secretary of State, more than 2.7 million of 20.6 million registered voters turned in their ballots as of Thursday— and even more did so this weekend.
Notably, aggregated polls showed Buttigieg at 7.7% and Klobuchar at 4.7% in California. If those polls end up mirroring the early votes that have already been turned in, more than 324,000 people in California alone could have voted for candidates who are not in the race.
Those numbers are even more staggering in smaller states like Utah, where, according to reports, nearly 23% of active voters have already voted, and where Buttigieg was polling at 18%.
While that would likely complicate an already confusing process at the national convention, Buttigieg and Klobuchar’s decision to drop out will almost certainly help Biden in the long-run.
See what others are saying: (NPR) (FiveThirtyEight) (NBC News)
Ron DeSantis Faces Lawsuit, Investigation for “Human Trafficking” of Migrants
A woman only known as “Pearla” allegedly lured the desperate migrants onto planes with monetary incentives and false promises.
A Political Stunt Blows Up in the Governor’s Face
After unexpectedly flying some 50 mostly Venezuelan migrants from San Antonio to Martha’s Vineyard last week, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is staring down a class action lawsuit, a local investigation, and a potential probe from the Justice Department.
On Tuesday, Lawyers for Civil Rights, in conjunction with the nonprofit Alianza Americas filed a federal class-action lawsuit on behalf of the migrants. The filing names DeSantis, the state of Florida, Florida Department of Transportation Secretary Jared Perdue, and their accomplices as defendants.
It alleges they fraudulently induced the migrants to cross state lines to Martha’s Vineyard, where shelter and resources were not prepared.
According to several accounts, the migrants were falsely promised work, free rent, and immigration assistance in exchange for taking the trip.
The migrants are seeking unspecified damages on top of the cost of their legal fees for emotional and economic harm.
On Monday, Texas Bexar County Sheriff Javier Salazar announced that he was opening an investigation into the migrant flights and DeSantis’s role in the scheme, which he called an “abuse of human rights.”
“They feel that they were deceived in being taken from Bexar County — from San Antonio, Texas — to where they eventually ended up,” he told CNN on Tuesday. “That could be a crime here in Texas and we will handle it as such.”
Salazar also said in a statement that his office was working with private attorneys representing the victims and advocacy organizations and that he was prepared to work with “any federal agency with concurrent jurisdiction, should the need arise.”
Since making the announcement, the sheriff’s office has been bombarded by threats via phone and email, according to a statement by a spokesperson.
Dylan Fernandes, a Massachusetts state lawmaker representing Martha’s Vineyard, called on the DoJ to launch a human trafficking probe into DeSantis Sunday.
He wrote on Twitter about the “inhumane acts,” saying, “Not only is it morally criminal, there are legal implications around fraud, kidnapping, deprivation of liberty, and human trafficking.”
A Mysterious Woman Named Pearla
Several migrants have told reporters, and claimed in the class action lawsuit, that they were lured onto the planes by a tall, blonde woman calling herself Pearla.
She reportedly approached them outside the San Antonio shelter, on the street, and in a McDonald’s parking lot, talking to them in broken Spanish.
Eduardo Linares, a migrant who said he rejected Pearla’s offer, told The Boston Globe that she promised them a free trip to Massachusetts and guaranteed work.
Another migrant named Alejandro told the outlet she offered him three months of free rent, job placement, and help with his immigration case.
The San Antonio Report interviewed a migrant named Emmanuel who said Pearla paid him $200 to recruit other migrants for the flights.
Tuesday’s lawsuit filing elaborates on their claims, saying that they were enticed with $10 McDonald’s gift cards to fly to Boston or Washington.
It alleges that the migrants were rounded up in hotel rooms while the scheme’s organizers gathered enough people to fill two planes, with them sequestered so they could not discuss the plan with anyone else.
“Once the individual Plaintiffs and class members landed, it became clear that the promises made to induce them on the planes were in fact bold-faced lies,” the filing says.
DeSantis defended himself on Fox News Monday night, saying, “They all signed consent forms to go and then the vendor that is doing this for Florida provided them with a packet that had a map of Martha’s Vineyard, it has the number for different services that are on Martha’s Vineyard.”
The brochures given to the migrants, however, listed services for refugees, not asylum seekers, and some migrants have said they weren’t aware of this fact. If the migrants were misled, the participants in the scheme could be criminally liable.
Who Pearla is and who employs her is still unknown, but DeSantis has publically taken credit for chartering the flights.
The League of United Latin American Citizens is offering $5,000 for information leading to the identification, arrest, and conviction of Pearla.
Two days after arriving in Martha’s Vineyard, the migrants voluntarily took shelter in a Cape Cod military base, which is designed for such emergency purposes.
See what others are saying: (NPR) (Vice) (The Boston Globe)
Is The Pandemic Really Over? Experts Bristle at Biden’s Declaration
Top Republicans took the president’s words as a signal not to approve any more funds for COVID relief.
The Pandemic’s End
“The pandemic is over,” declared President Joe Biden in a “60 Minutes” interview aired Sunday night.
“We still have a problem with COVID,” he said. “We’re still doing a lot of work on it. But the pandemic is over.”
“If you notice, no one is wearing masks. Everybody seems to be in pretty good shape, and so I think it’s changing, and I think this is a perfect example of it,” he added, gesturing around at last week’s Detroit Auto Show, where the interview took place.
The president’s remarks turned many heads among public health experts, who have pointed out that 400 to 500 Americans continue to die from COVID-19 every day.
“We’ve had two million cases reported over the last 28 days, and we know underreporting is substantial,” Dr. Michael T. Osterholm, an infectious disease expert at the University of Minnesota, told The New York Times.
“COVID-19 continues to be the number four cause of death in the country,” he added.
Others argued that the U.S. president does not have the authority to declare a pandemic over. Only the World Health Organization, which first declared the coronavirus a global pandemic in early 2020, holds that power.
“We are not there yet,” WHO Director General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said last week. “But the end is in sight.”
To Care or Not to Care: That is the White House’s Question
Biden’s relatively relaxed attitude toward the virus on “60 Minutes” contradicted his administration’s official policy, which aids have been quick to clarify remains the same. According to the Department of Health and Human Services, the government’s declaration of a COVID-19 public health emergency, which enables it to waive or modify requirements for health-related programs like Medicare and Medicaid, remains in effect. That designation, however, will be up for renewal on October 13.
The White House has also been pushing Congress to allocate another $22 billion toward fighting the pandemic, but top Republicans said Monday that Biden’s comment declaring the pandemic over essentially shuts the door on further aid.
“If it’s over, then I wouldn’t suspect they need any more money,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tx.) in response Monday.
Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.), the ranking Republican member on the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee, added, “I don’t think they were going to get any Covid money through anyway.”
The Biden administration continues to encourage Americans to get the newly authorized “bivalent” COVID-19 booster shot, which provides protection against both the original strain and the omicron subvariants.
The booster shot could prevent as many as 10,000 deaths and 137,000 hospitalizations in the coming months, according to one estimate by Matthew Daley, a physician at Kaiser Permanente Colorado.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends that everybody over the age of 12, and those who are older, pregnant, immunocompromised, or have a chronic illness, in particular, get the booster as soon as possible. But while most Americans have been vaccinated at least once, less than half have gotten their first booster shot, according to CDC data.
New York Mayor Eric Adams announced Tuesday that vaccine mandates for private employers will end in November, though public employees will still be required to have a vaccine. The day prior, Starbucks also lifted some COVID policies, announcing that its workers will no longer get two weeks of sick pay for coronavirus infections starting on October 2.
In its statement, the company described the pandemic as entering the “endemic” phase.
See what others are saying: (The New York Times) (CNN) (The Washington Post)
Trump Plays QAnon Music During Conspiracy-Ridden Speech in Ohio
In recent weeks, the former president has made explicit gestures to QAnon on Truth Social.
The One-Finger Salute Becomes Trump’s Latest Rallying Symbol
In one of his clearest endorsements of the conspiracy theory yet, former president Donald Trump played a QAnon theme song during a rally in Youngstown, Ohio on Saturday.
Trump was there to support Senate candidate JD Vance ahead of November’s midterm elections. As the night’s rally came to a close, the former president delivered an eight-minute monologue while dramatic string music provided ambiance.
Experts identified the song as “WWG1WGA,” an acronym for the QAnon slogan “Where we go one, we go all.”
But Trump aids who spoke to The New York Times claimed it was in fact a song called “Mirrors” by film and TV composer Will Van De Crommer.
“The fake news, in a pathetic attempt to create controversy and divide America, is brewing up another conspiracy about a royalty-free song from a popular audio library platform,” Trump spokesman Taylor Budowich, told the outlet.
When Trump posted a video to Truth Social containing the same music last month, however, music professor David Dominique told Vice the two songs were indistinguishable.
“I have listened to both [‘Mirrors’ and ‘WWG1WGA’] closely several times now,” he said. “And I have 100% professional confidence these recordings are identical, not even a reinterpretation of a composition, but the same recording.”
Media Matters also analyzed the songs using the software Audacity and found their audio profiles to be “virtually identical.”
When the song played on Saturday, dozens of people in the audience saluted with one finger extended in the air, a gesture Trump aids told The Times they have never seen at one of the former president’s rallies before.
The Daily Beast’s Will Sommer, who has a book about QAnon coming out next year, called the salute “curious” in a Twitter thread.
“Some on Twitter are calling it a QAnon salute, with 1 finger for ‘Where we go 1,’ and Trump is playing a pro-Q song as he talks,” he wrote. “I’ve never seen this happen before, though, so if it’s a Q thing it’s new.”
He added the caveat: “The one finger thing might also be for ‘America First.’ The white nationalist groypers, for example, do a one finger salute for that reason.”
Trump Warms to QAnon
QAnon is a conspiracy theory encompassing a wide range of beliefs, but the most common iteration posits that Trump is locked in a secret struggle against a global cabal of Democratic elites and satan-worshipping, cannibalistic pedophiles.
The Trump administration generally kept its distance from the movement throughout most of his term, then the former president began to signal his sympathy for it as the 2020 election drew closer.
He congratulated Marjorie Taylor Greene, a prominent politician who has expressed belief in QAnon, for winning Georgia’s GOP primary.
When asked about QAnon a few days later, Trump told the press corps, “I don’t know much about the movement other than I understand they like me very much, which I appreciate.”
One reporter followed up by asking him specifically about the idea that he was serving as a warrior against a satanic cabal of pedophiles and cannibals, to which Trump replied, “If I can help save the world from problems, I’m willing to do it.”
Late last month, the former president created and shared a flurry of posts on Truth Social that were explicitly related to QAnon.
In one, he reposted the slogan “Where We Go One We Go All,” and in another, he reposted a 2017 message from “Q,” the anonymous persona at the center of the conspiracy theory, criticizing the intelligence community. The string of posts came one day after he demanded to be reinstated as president, and just weeks after the FBI executed a search warrant on his Mar-a-Lago estate.
Last week, Trump posted a meme of himself wearing a Q lapel pin with the words “The storm is coming” superimposed over it. In QAnon lore, “the storm” refers to the imminent return of Trump to the White House and subsequent mass arrest of the deep-state cabal.
In May 2021, the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) conducted a survey of Americans’ belief in specific QAnon-related conspiracies.
Around 15% of respondents, equivalent to nearly 50 million people if extrapolated to the general population, agreed with the statement: “The government, media and financial world in the U.S. are controlled by a group of Satan-worshiping pedophiles who run a global child sex trafficking operation.”