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Trudeau Wins Reelection But Loses Majority

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  • Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau won his reelection, though his Liberal Party suffered significant blows, losing its majority in Parliament.
  • Now, Trudeau will have to work closely with other parties as he leads his new minority government.
  • While many experts believe the Liberals will easily form alliances with other parties, many have also pointed out that minority governments in Canada historically do not last longer than two years.
  • Many viewed the election as a referendum on Trudeau’s character following a corruption scandal and the surfacing of black and brownface pictures.

Canadian Election

Justin Trudeau was reelected as Canadian Prime Minister Monday after his Liberal Party won the most seats in Parliament, but stopped short of keeping its majority. 

According to election results from CBC, Trudeau’s Liberal Party won a total of 157 seats, while the Conservative Party took home 121 seats and smaller parties grabbed the rest.

Source: CBC

While Trudeau and his party won the most seats, they stopped short of receiving the 170 seats necessary to have a majority in Canada’s 338-seat Parliament.

In addition to not getting a majority, the Liberal Party also lost seats that they had previously held as the Conservatives gained more. In 2015, Trudeau was first elected Prime Minister after his party won 184 seats. Conservatives, by contrast, won 99 seats the same year.

As a result, the Prime Minister and his party come out of this election significantly weathered.

Trudeau’s win comes after the embattled leader’s future was jeopardized by separate incidents involving a corruption scandal and leaked photos where he was featured wearing black and brownface.

Past Controversies 

Trudeau first found himself embroiled in corruption accusations in February.

Former justice minister and attorney general Jody Wilson-Raybould, an Indigenous woman, accused the Prime Minister and his aides of pushing her to settle a criminal case with the Canadian engineering and construction firm SNC-Lavalin.

Trudeau argued settling the case would save thousands of jobs because the criminal case against SNC would have prevented it from getting government contracts.

But many Canadians saw the incident as Trudeau— a self-described feminist who has claimed to be an advocate of Indigenous rights— bullying an Indigenous woman to protect a company that financially benefited his own Liberal Party.

Others also felt it was a bad look for Trudeau, who has pushed for government transparency, especially after Parliament’s ethics commissioner found that he broke conflict-of-interest laws.

Then, in September, a series of three black and brownface photos of Trudeau surfaced. That incident drew widespread criticism and prompted many to speculate about his chances in the election.

The leader’s future as Prime Minister seemed up in the air as his Liberal Party polled neck-and-neck with the Conservative Party when voters cast their ballots Monday.

Next Steps

While Trudeau and the Liberals came out on top, the battle for power is far from over.

Unlike some parliamentary systems such as Israel’s, Trudeau does not need a majority to lead the government, meaning he does not need to formally build coalitions with other parties to get that majority. Instead, he will just lead a minority government.

While minority governments are not uncommon in Canada, it still puts Trudeau in a pretty dicey position.

As many have noted, minority governments in the country often do not last for longer than two years, so Trudeau will have to fight hard to maintain power.

It also means that he will need the support of other parties to pass legislation— something he did not necessarily need before when he had an outright majority.

That said, because the Liberals are only 13 seats short of a majority, Trudeau would really only need the support of one of the other mid-sized parties to pass legislation. As a result, many experts believe that the Liberals should be able to find allies.

“He should be able to put together some kind of agenda where he can get the support he needs on an issue-by-issue basis,” Lori Williams, a political analyst at Mount Royal University in Calgary told The Wall Street Journal.

Potential Alliances

Arguably the most logical partner for the Liberals is the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP), which won 24 seats.

Though further to the left than Trudeau’s party, the NDP has a history of working with the Liberals to keep power. In 2005, the NDP helped prop up a Liberal minority government to prevent being defeated by Conservatives.

Now, the two parties again have a vested interest in working together to keep conservatives out of power. The NDP additionally has a big incentive to prevent another election because they lost nearly half their seats in this election.

Speaking to supporters Tuesday, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh said his party would play a “constructive and positive role in the new Parliament.”

Trudeau could also find an ally in the Bloc Québécois, a party that promotes Quebec’s independence from Canada, which went from just 10 seats to 32 this election.

The Bloc’s leader, Yves-François Blanchet, also said Tuesday that his party would be open to working with the Liberals. 

“If what is being proposed is good for Québéc, you can count on us,” he said.

Notably, both the Bloc and the NDP are generally in line with one of Trudeau’s biggest legislative issues: climate change.

Speaking Monday night in his acceptance speech, Trudeau thanked Canadians for their votes.

“From coast to coast, tonight, Canadians rejected division and negativity. They rejected cuts and austerity, and they voted in favour of a progressive agenda and strong action on climate change,” he said.  

“I have heard you, my friends. You are sending our Liberal team back to work; back to Ottawa with a clear mandate,” he continued. “We will make life more affordable. We will continue to fight climate change. We will get guns off our streets and we will keep investing in Canadians.”

Despite their win, the election has taken a big toll on the Liberal Party and put Trudeau in a fragile situation. Already, Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer seems to be eyeing Trudeau’s spot.

“Conservatives have put Justin Trudeau on notice,” Scheer said in a concession speech Monday night. “And Mr. Trudeau, when your government falls, Conservatives will be ready and we will win.”

See what others are saying: (CBC) (The Wall Street Journal) (The New York Times)

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Hong Kong Police Battle Protesters on College Campus as Chinese Students Flee the City

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  • University students in Hong Kong won control of a bridge from riot police Tuesday night after a day of dramatic and violent clashing. 
  • The situation follows the first official death in Hong Kong where a student fell from a parking garage while protesters were being dispersed by police.
  • Some universities have canceled their semesters early and others have suspended classes, prompting many students originally from mainland China to flee over the Hong Kong border.

Battle at the Chinese University of Hong Kong

Pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong gained control over a bridge near the Chinese University of Hong Kong Tuesday night after a day-long dramatic clash with police. 

The incident started when police began to occupy the bridge, signaling a shift in an unspoken rule to leave universities alone. 

Student protesters then set up a barricade on campus to keep police from entering. Following that, the two groups began to clash, with students throwing bricks and Molotov cocktails while police fired multiple rounds of tear gas at the protesters. Police also physically wrestled some of the protesters to the ground as students yelled at police to leave the campus.

After the first clash, the protesters retreated to an athletic field and locked the gate. Police then continued to fire tear gas by lobbing it over the gate. At one point, the field reportedly caught fire and the students retreated to bleachers.

The ongoing violence then prompted the university’s president, Rocky Tuan, to try and act as a common ground between students and police. 

At one point during those negotiations, a man walked down the street while revving a chainsaw, but a group of protestors then convinced that man to put down the chainsaw and enveloped him in a hug.

Later, Tuan struck a deal with police, saying that university security would guard the bridge instead of police if students dispersed and stopped throwing objects onto the highway below the bridge. That then prompted students to ask why police were even on campus. Refusing to disperse, protesters then asked about the safety of those who had been arrested.

The battle over the bridge continued into the night as more clashes broke out with protesters carrying umbrellas, shields, barricades while police filled the area with tear gas and fired rubber bullets.

Other protesters threw more Molotov cocktails at police in an attempt to gain ground while people used leaf blowers to blow away the tear gas. Some students even practiced firing flaming arrows from bows.

Students later retreated after police fired a water cannon.

Soon after, however, they then came back and ultimately forced police to retreat. Students pushed forward and built more barriers with golf carts and a burned-out car to hold their ground gained. 

Protesters remained on the bridge throughout the night while passing supplies to each other and making more Molotov cocktails in case police came back. 

Chinese Students Flee Hong Kong

On Wednesday morning, the Chinese University of Hong Kong ended its semester early. It was originally scheduled to end its semester on Nov. 30.

 Another university also suspended its on-campus semester and switched to online classes. At the same time, other universities suspended classes for a week. 

Additionally, Hong Kong canceled all schools in the city on Thursday due to transportation and safety reasons.

As universities canceled classes, students originally from mainland China fled over the Hong Kong border with the help of police.

While those students said they had felt safer on campus than in the streets, some said many of them didn’t openly express pro-China views on campus. Those students also said they felt the need to avoid talking loudly in Mandarin, which is the main language in China.

On the other side of the border, hotels offered those students free rooms, with some of those hotels filling to near capacity.

What Led to Tuesday’s Clash?

Tuesday’s clash between student protesters and riot police comes after the death of student Chow Tsz-lok, who went by the name Alex. Chow’s death is the first death from clashes that have been consistently escalating since they began nearly six months ago. 

Chow died while demonstrating with other protesters at a parking garage on Nov. 4. When police tried to break up that crowd, Chow reportedly fell one story from the structure.

Chow sustained head and pelvis injuries and was rushed to the hospital; however, he died from his injuries on Nov. 8. 

Later that same day, students at Chow’s university held a vigil and an on-campus march for him. Protesters held other vigils across the city, including at the parking garage where Chow fell.

Protesters called for an investigation into the use of force by riot police, which has been one of the five key demands of the protesters.

As protesters called for revenge, some of the demonstrations that night once again became violent.

On Monday, another protester was shot several times, this time at point-blank range. Other protesters shouted at that officer and called him a murderer. That officer then doused the crowd with pepper spray.

That same day, protesters set a different man on fire after he reportedly yelled at them, telling them they lacked patriotism for mainland China.

Hospital officials said both those men were in critical condition.

In October, both an 18-year-old man and a 14-year-old boy were shot by police.

What is the Hong Kong Government Doing?

Last month, the extradition bill that sparked the protests was finally formally withdrawn. Still, that’s not enough for these protesters. They are also calling for complete amnesty, a retraction of the official characterization of the protests as “riots,” and the resignation of Chief Executive Carrie Lam.

On Nov. 24, Hong Kong is scheduled to hold elections; however, those elections have also faced controversy as Hong Kong has barred a prominent pro-democracy activist from running. Other pro-democracy lawmakers and candidates have been arrested, and one pro-China lawmaker was stabbed.

Also because of all of the violence, there is some worry that those elections might not end up happening. Lam has said she will do everything possible to ensure that elections are fair and safe, saying on Tuesday that the government “hopes that the elections can continue as planned.”

Also on Tuesday, the pro-China newspaper The People’s Daily—which has acted as a mouthpiece for Beijing—said that elections should only proceed if calm is restored to Hong Kong. 

See what others are saying: (Washington Post) (Wall Street Journal) (BuzzFeed News)

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As Two Australian States Declare Emergencies, Scientists Warn that Climate Change is Making the Country’s Fire Season Worse

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  • Fires raging in Australia have forced officials to declare a state of emergency in New South Wales and Queensland.
  • The greater Sydney area is facing a “catastrophic” level warning, the highest level in the country and the first time it has been issued in the city since implemented after the 2009 Black Saturday fires.  
  • While scientists have said the fires are a result of worsening climate change, Australia’s Deputy Prime Minister has said the concern should be on people losing their homes, not “the ravings of some pure, enlightened and woke capital city Greenies.”

States of Emergency Declared

Nearly 90 fires are raging in New South Wales, Australia, with more than half of them considered uncontained, promoting Australian officials to declare a state of emergency Monday.

Fear mounted on Tuesday over a concern that a cold front might shift the direction of the fires that span along 620 miles of Australia’s eastern coastline. 

The fires, which began in early September, have forced thousands of people to evacuate their homes with more being warned to be prepared to leave, if necessary. More than 150 properties have been destroyed since the beginning of the fire season.

Over the weekend, the death toll rose to three people.

According to the BBC, authorities called this week “the most dangerous bushfire week this nation has ever seen.” 

Alongside New South Wales’ state of emergency, around 600 schools have shut down. Planes are spraying some homes and trees with flame retardant. 

On Tuesday, as the fires encroached upon Sydney, Australia’s most populous city. The city’s skyline sat under a blanket of smoke as some of the fires reportedly reached suburbs as close as nine miles away from the city center.

Experts compared the day’s forecast to the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires in the state of Victoria, which killed 173 people.

The greater Sydney area is now under a “catastrophic” level-warning, which is the highest level warning for fires. It is also the first time Sydney has been hit with such a grave warning since the system was implemented after the Black Saturday Fires.

Queensland, which has also declared a state of emergency, reported 55 fires on Tuesday. While its fires were not considered as severe at the moment, officials warned that could change with little notice.

Bushfires Start as Bad “Omen” in September

While the bushfires started as part of Australia’s expected fire season, they were exacerbated by drought and high winds. 

This season’s drought is particularly bad, but Australia’s east coast has actually seen below-average rainfall over the past two years.

In Queensland, more than 50 fires burned in early September.

Reports estimated more than 20 buildings destroyed within days of the start of the season. The destroyed property also included the historic Binna Burra Lodge in Lamington National Park.

“We’ve never seen this before in recorded history, fire weather has never been as severe this early in spring,” Andrew Sturgess, an inspector with Queensland emergency services, said in September. 

Sturgess also called the fire a potential omen for worse to come, which proved to be true. 

How Are the Fires Related to Climate Change?

Climate scientists have associated Australia’s worsening fire season with climate change. Those scientists predict Australia’s bushfires will only continue to become more frequent and more intense as climate change worsens.

They also say that Australia is particularly susceptible to climate change because of its vast interior desert combined with rapidly-heating ocean currents surrounding the country.

“There’s a human fingerprint on the temperature increases since 1950 — all the weather patterns are occurring in a planet that is warming and warming because of human activity,” Joëlle Gergis, a climate scientist and writer from the Australian National University, told the New York Times.

“We’re really missing the opportunity to prepare for future life in Australia. It’s going to be a lot warmer, and we’re going to see a lot of prevalence of extreme fire conditions,” she added. “The further we kick the can down the road and avoid these conversations, we’re really missing the opportunity to get the Australian public ready for what is upon us.”

Australia’s Reliance on Coal

On top of climate change, Australia is at odds with its deep ties to coal, with the country’s primary energy consumption still being dominated by coal.

According to the Australian government, the country still relies on coal for 40% of its energy. It’s also the largest coal exporter in the world and has fallen behind on its promise in the Paris Agreement to reduce emissions.

Because of that, Australia has seen a number of dramatic protests over the last couple of months. In October, a man chained himself to railroad tracks while holding a sign reading, “Australia has the worst record of species extinction in the whole world.”

A couple of weeks ago, protesters locked arms to stop people from entering a mining conference. They were then forcibly dispersed by police using pepper spray.

Speaking with ABC Radio National on Monday, however, deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack denied that these fires are related to climate change. 

“We’ve had fires in Australia since time began, and what people need now is a little bit of sympathy, understanding and real assistance – they need help, they need shelter,” he said.

“They don’t need the ravings of some pure, enlighted, and woke capital city Greenies at this time when they’re trying to save their homes,” he added after he was asked why it was wrong to discuss climate change while the fires raged.  

Following McCormack’s interview, the mayor of the New South Wales town of Glen Innes challenged his statement. 

“It is not a political thing — it is a scientific fact that we are going through climate change,” Mayor Carol Sparks said. “I think that Michael McCormack needs to read the science.”

See what others are saying: (The Guardian) (Weather) (Sydney Morning Herald)

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Bolivia’s President Resigns After Report Finds “Clear Manipulation” of Votes

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  • Bolivian President Evo Morales resigned Sunday after the Organization of American States released an audit saying it had found “clear manipulation” of election results that secured him a fourth term.
  • Morales has called the situation in Bolivia a “coup” orchestrated by his rival, Carlos Mesa.
  • A slew of Morales’ senior officials also resigned, with Second Vice President of the Senate Jeanine Añez saying she will assume the role as transitional president while new elections are held.

Morales Resigns

Bolivian President Evo Morales resigned Sunday following the release of an audit by the Organization of American States, which said it had found evidence of the “clear manipulation” of electoral votes.

Morales had faced strong opposition since he was elected for his fourth term on Oct. 20. That opposition came to a blistering head on Sunday after the OAS’s report led to the national police and heads of Bolivia’s armed forces calling on Morales to step down.

In the report, auditors said the voting transmission system had not been “100% monitored” and that at one point, information was redirected. Because of this, auditors couldn’t have certainty over the results. 

Auditors also said that “good practices” were not used when conducting the official vote count because the voting system allowed someone to take control of parts of the process that were intended to be secure. Auditors even said that at one point, the system was frozen and fixed in a way that violated “essential principles of security.” 

The OAS then concluded that 78 of the total 333 evaluated vote counts from polling stations showed irregularities, noting that the last 5% of votes were especially odd because they showed an increase for Morales while his opponent, Carlos Mesa, dropped significantly.

Still, prior to the report’s publication, Morales had promised to stand by it and hold new elections if it found evidence of fraud.

In his resignation, Morales claimed he was leaving to ease the violence that has plagued Bolivia since the election last month. 

“We resign because I don’t want to see any more families attacked by instruction of Mesa and [opposition leader Luis Fernando] Camacho,” he said Sunday. “This is not a betrayal to social movements. The fight continues. We are the people, and thanks to this political union, we have freed Bolivia. We leave this homeland freed.”

“Mesa and Camacho have achieved their objective,” he added. “Now stop burning the houses of my brothers and sisters.”

On Twitter, Morales also threw a shot at a police officer who he said was attempting to “illegally” arrest him; however, the head of the national police denied that any warrants had been issued for Morales. 

“The coup mongers are destroying the rule of law,” Morales also said on Twitter.

Mesa, on the other hand, celebrated the news of the audit and Morales’ resignation. 

“To Bolivia, its people, the young, the women, to the heroism of peaceful resistance. I will never forget this unique day. The end of tyranny. I’m grateful to the Bolivian people for this historic lesson. Long live Bolivia!”

“We shall not permit the ex-president to use the excuse of a coup,” Mesa told reporters. “This was not a coup.”

Protesters Ransack Government Officials’ Homes

While some media outlets in Bolivia reported celebrations in certain areas, there were also widespread reports of violence against senior members of Morales’ Movement for Socialism party.

According to Mexican Foreign Secretary Marcelo Ebrard, the Mexican embassy in the city of La Paz sheltered 20 of Morales’ senior officials on Sunday as protesters ransacked and burned their homes.

Video posted to Twitter also shows people walking through Morales’ home after it had been ransacked. Mexico has now offered him political asylum.

Some protesters even went so far as to reportedly kidnap the brother of Victor Borda, the President of the Chamber of Deputies.

In the city streets, police withdrew from La Paz following Morales’ resignation. While some people celebrated by chanting “Yes, we could!” and by setting off fireworks, others looted stores. Other people started what appeared to be politically-motivated fires.

Other Countries React

Morales’ resignation has ignited a firestorm of reactions from other countries.

In addition to offering Morales political asylum, the Mexican president called the situation regrettable, while Foreign Secretary Ebrard echoed Morales’ calls of a “coup.”

Like Mexico, Nicaragua came to Morales’ defense, with President Daniel Ortega saying, “The government of Nicaragua … denounces and strongly condemns the coup d’etat that was realised today.” 

Similarly, Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro took to Twitter to call the situation a “coup,” also saying that rallies would be held to defend “the life of the Bolivian native people, victims of racism.”

Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the Labour Party in the United Kingdom, described Morales as the leader of a powerful movement and said that he “has brought so much social progress.”

I condemn this coup against the Bolivian people and stand with them for democracy, social justice and independence,” Corbyn said.

In the U.S., the reaction has been mixed. 

Along with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) denounced the situation as a coup.

We must unequivocally oppose political violence in Bolivia. Bolivians deserve free and fair elections,” Omar said.

On the other hand, President Donald Trump celebrated Morales’ resignation, calling it a “significant moment for democracy.”

“After nearly 14 years and his recent attempt to override the Bolivian constitution and the will of the people, Morales’s departure preserves democracy and paves the way for the Bolivian people to have their voices heard,” Trump said in a statement.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also commended the OAS in supporting a new election.

Additionally, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro lent his support to holding new elections. 

Who Will Lead Bolivia?

Following Morales’ resignation, his vice president, the Senate president, the president of the Chamber of Deputies, and the first vice president of the Senate also resigned. Respectively, those resignations eliminate the first through the fourth people in line to succeed Morales. 

In terms of succession, the next in line is Second Vice President of the Senate Jeanine Añez, who said she would step up as a transitional president, but she also needs quorum from the national assembly. Currently, the Movement for Socialism Party controls both houses and Añez has been described as strongly anti-Morales.

As for a new election, under the Bolivian constitution, elections must be held within 90 days of a constitutional crisis. Should she get transfer of power, Añez has said she’ll work to hold that election.

At the same time, Morales is reportedly hiding out, but that has not stopped him from reaching out to his supporters on social media and urging to resist forming a transitional government

“You never abandoned me and I will never abandon you,” he said Monday morning. 

See what others are saying: (Axios) (Reuters) (Aljazeera)

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